Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

Difficult question.

Are you still at 75% chance of approval, or did you change your mind?

At first, reading the reassurances from our board’s “top biologists,” I felt confident enough to raise my approval odds to 93%.

But when I noticed that even Dr. Sabbagh—the most prominent of the 58 co-authors on the P2b/3 peer-reviewed paper, with a reputation he’d never casually risk on Anavex—still hasn’t persuaded Cell to retract that paragraph, my estimate plunged to closer to 3%.

It aligns with what the most trusted CNS expert here has been warning all along. I used to be ambivalent, but now I’m far less certain about approval chances.