AI
Sunday, August 10, 2025 5:23:50 PM
Current AIM-CASH weekly values – Large-caps were unchanged, while mid-caps and small-caps increased.
Large- and mega-cap stocks : 56.0%
Historical weeks nearest the current value again showed lower returns and win rates than the overall averages. Taking the 52-week holding period as an example, the range of the ISR (the middle two-thirds of returns) for the nearby weeks was 0.3 (30 percentage points, from 0.774 to 1.074) -- the same range as for the overall ISR, but lower by 0.126 (12.6%) -- while the win rate for the nearby weeks was less than half of the overall win rate. (Random chance is a reasonable explanation for the shorter holding periods, but for the 39-week and longer periods it doesn’t seem to explain the returns and win rates seen in the nearby weeks very well. If groups of weeks were just being drawn at random from the historical data, median returns and win rates this far below average might be expected to occur only once in a great many draws.)
Mid-cap stocks : 59.6%
Historical weeks nearest the current value again had higher returns and win rates versus the overall averages, for holding periods of 39 weeks and longer. Sticking with the 52-week holding period as an illustration, the ISR for the nearby weeks had a smaller range than the overall ISR, and was positive throughout its range, and the win rate for the nearby weeks was higher than average. The nearby weeks, in other words, were more likely than overall to show gains, with extreme gains or losses less likely than overall. (The median returns are consistent with what random chance might produce, but the win rates for the 52-week holding period, and especially for the 78-week and 104-week holding periods are higher than what would typically be expected from luck.)
Small-cap stocks : 35.4%
Historical weeks nearest the current value also had higher returns and win rates than the overall averages, for holding periods of 39 weeks and longer. Like the mid-caps, the 52-week ISR for the nearby weeks had a narrower range than overall and was positive throughout the range, while its win rate was also higher than the overall average. (The median return for the 52-week holding period looks like what might be expected from random variation, and the win rate for the same period could also be the result of randomness, but the pattern of the returns and win rates for the 78-week and 104-week holding periods would be very unusual to find by simple chance.)
(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)
With kind regards,
MakeItJake
Large- and mega-cap stocks : 56.0%
Historical weeks nearest the current value again showed lower returns and win rates than the overall averages. Taking the 52-week holding period as an example, the range of the ISR (the middle two-thirds of returns) for the nearby weeks was 0.3 (30 percentage points, from 0.774 to 1.074) -- the same range as for the overall ISR, but lower by 0.126 (12.6%) -- while the win rate for the nearby weeks was less than half of the overall win rate. (Random chance is a reasonable explanation for the shorter holding periods, but for the 39-week and longer periods it doesn’t seem to explain the returns and win rates seen in the nearby weeks very well. If groups of weeks were just being drawn at random from the historical data, median returns and win rates this far below average might be expected to occur only once in a great many draws.)
Mid-cap stocks : 59.6%
Historical weeks nearest the current value again had higher returns and win rates versus the overall averages, for holding periods of 39 weeks and longer. Sticking with the 52-week holding period as an illustration, the ISR for the nearby weeks had a smaller range than the overall ISR, and was positive throughout its range, and the win rate for the nearby weeks was higher than average. The nearby weeks, in other words, were more likely than overall to show gains, with extreme gains or losses less likely than overall. (The median returns are consistent with what random chance might produce, but the win rates for the 52-week holding period, and especially for the 78-week and 104-week holding periods are higher than what would typically be expected from luck.)
Small-cap stocks : 35.4%
Historical weeks nearest the current value also had higher returns and win rates than the overall averages, for holding periods of 39 weeks and longer. Like the mid-caps, the 52-week ISR for the nearby weeks had a narrower range than overall and was positive throughout the range, while its win rate was also higher than the overall average. (The median return for the 52-week holding period looks like what might be expected from random variation, and the win rate for the same period could also be the result of randomness, but the pattern of the returns and win rates for the 78-week and 104-week holding periods would be very unusual to find by simple chance.)
(Links to Clive’s original AIM-CASH message and spreadsheet and a description of what I’ve modified are in post # 47330.)
With kind regards,
MakeItJake
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