AI
Monday, August 04, 2025 12:12:40 PM
Market Risk Report
Our Divergence Index (Modified Fosback High/Low Logic) rose to its Caution territory and threw its weight into the mix this week. It indicates investors are somewhat confused as to the market's next direction. We now have 3 of the 4 MRI components showing Caution. (Divergence, Valuation and Speculation)
As mentioned before, the MRI has a bit of data lag in it as both Value Line and Barron's both just publish once a week. Those are the two sources of data used for calculating the MRI each week. Even so, this week the MRI rises two points to 37% suggested cash to be held in reserve for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator sits at +6 indicating significant upward risk pressure.
Our v-Wave market risk indicator remains unchanged for the 3-5 year time horizon but is up on the 18 Month view. Again this week it is suggesting 34% cash be held for diversified portfolios. This is a bit less than the SignalPoint MRI, but both are suggesting we would be prudent to keep some powder dry here.
No changes were made to Value Line's long term growth model again this week. Overall, it's having a pretty good year so far. (Model Portfolio III, Value Line Selection & Opinion section)
In the meantime, my Equity Warehouse continues to have a pretty good year as well. Here's the domestic business sector ETF composite results:
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Our Divergence Index (Modified Fosback High/Low Logic) rose to its Caution territory and threw its weight into the mix this week. It indicates investors are somewhat confused as to the market's next direction. We now have 3 of the 4 MRI components showing Caution. (Divergence, Valuation and Speculation)
As mentioned before, the MRI has a bit of data lag in it as both Value Line and Barron's both just publish once a week. Those are the two sources of data used for calculating the MRI each week. Even so, this week the MRI rises two points to 37% suggested cash to be held in reserve for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator sits at +6 indicating significant upward risk pressure.
Our v-Wave market risk indicator remains unchanged for the 3-5 year time horizon but is up on the 18 Month view. Again this week it is suggesting 34% cash be held for diversified portfolios. This is a bit less than the SignalPoint MRI, but both are suggesting we would be prudent to keep some powder dry here.
No changes were made to Value Line's long term growth model again this week. Overall, it's having a pretty good year so far. (Model Portfolio III, Value Line Selection & Opinion section)
In the meantime, my Equity Warehouse continues to have a pretty good year as well. Here's the domestic business sector ETF composite results:
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
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