To your point it sounds like the gov can have maybe $1-25b of value or maybe another $200b or so of potential backstop.
Do you say that the government can choose between an additional 1-25 billion profit through SPS conversion or an additional backstop of 200 billion if SPS is considered repaid? I think that F2 will become significantly more valuable if the backstop is increased by round about 200 billion through an SPS considered repaid. This makes the treasury's potential profit with an initial 79.9% significantly greater than with 90-99.9% through SPS to commons conversion.