Market Timing

[gfp927z]

Looking at the near-term landscape for the market, the inflation numbers should be a potential landmine. The PCE is on Thursday this week, but the CPI and PPI aren't until Aug 12, 14. Like the July numbers, these could confirm a resurgence in inflation from the tariffs, and trigger a market selloff.

While the outcome of the Fed meeting this week isn't really in question, analysts are saying the key will be how 'disunited' the Fed Governors are in their policy recommendations and guidance. Trump's shenanigans over firing Powell, picking a successor, etc encourages an artificial disunity at the Fed.

In addition to the tariff deal news flow, another wildcard this week will be the corporate earnings announcements, especially the big tech names.

Meanwhile, we can probably assume that both Trump / Bessent and Powell want to see the relative buoyancy in the stock market continue, in spite of events and news flow.

The RSI for the S+P 500 (pre-market) is now 76.21, and once above 80 I may start taking some (modest) profits on the Flex side. The PCE number on Thursday seems like a potential trigger for a long overdue pullback. Just a guess though.



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