Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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Big Time Wins

I doubt that $9 to $10 is anywhere close to where AVXL price will be with positive schizophrenia results.

Anavex is conducting a clinical trial that will assess the effectiveness of Anavex 3-71 as a treatment for schizophrenia:

The placebo-controlled phase 2 study, Anavex 3-71-SZ-001, will consist of 2 parts, investigating multiple ascending doses in individuals with schizophrenia, followed by a 28-day treatment period in a larger cohort. Standard clinical outcome measures for schizophrenia, such as the Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS) and novel electrophysiological biomarkers identified by the ERP Biomarker Qualification Consortium, will be utilized in the study.1

Read more about the study here:
https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/drug-candidate-for-schizophrenia-alzheimer-disease-approved-to-initiate-phase-2-trial-in-q2-2024

“Schizophrenia is a serious mental illness affecting 24 million people worldwide,” said Christopher U. Missling, PhD, president and chief executive officer of Anavex Life Sciences Corp, developer of Anavex 3-71, in a press release. “While current antipsychotic therapies can be effective in managing positive symptoms, like hallucinations and delusions, they may not fully address persistent negative symptoms or cognitive difficulties. Often, available treatments are limited by side effects, eg, movement disorders, sedation, weight gain, and other metabolic side effects.”

Research shows that approximately 30% of individuals with schizophrenia to not respond to therapies, and additional 50% either experience intolerable adverse effects or only experience partial improvement in their symptoms.1

It’s plain and clear. If Anavex 3-71 is able to successfully treat schizophrenia the drug will be enthusiastically endorsed by both expert medical personnel and schizophrenia patients and their care givers. Positive trial results will be prominently reported in the public press. “New Drug Gives Hope for Schizophrenia.” The press reports will tell the high numbers of patients who could benefit. “The prevalence of schizophrenia among U.S adults is estimated to be 1.5 million people per year. (National Alliance on Mental Illness, 2019)”

Then, estimations of the drug’s annual costs for a schizophrenia patient will start to appear. Equity investors competent in simple arithmetic will then calculate Anavex’s new annual revenues. I’ve already punched the numbers ranges in my spreadsheet calculations, and, yes, with positive Anavex 3-71 schizophrenia trial results the share price of AVXL will ascend steeply and dramatically — enough that if that were the only drug for that single disease Anavex could sell, it, alone, would make Anavex Life Sciences Corp a well-funded, successful pharmaceutical.

Understand, Anavex 3-71's bioactivity occurs with doses in micrograms, not milligrams doses. (A microgram is one-one thousandth of a milligram.) It is not expensive to manufacture. Anavex’s profit margins with the drug will be large.

Cheap to make — to treat a large U.S. patient population; followed by global populations of schizophrenia patients.

Anavex, and its shareholders, (and patients) will win — Big Time.