Sunday, May 04, 2025 8:56:44 AM
Only thing I would argue is how quickly they will get to profitability. The cash burn from operations last quarter jumped from $59M to $73M. Not sure what was driving the additional burn, but not a good reversal.
Also, they had $420M in cash as of Feb 2025, with cash burn of "under $300M" for 2025, which means an additional $250M for remainder of 2025 (straight lining expenses) so $120M cash going into 2026. Guidance of cash into H2 2026 would mean cash burn of less than $120M for first 6-9 months of 2026, so $13M-$20M/ month, but that isn't much less than the current $25M/month
Personally not adding more until they actual say they can fund operations from current revenue. May miss the bottom, but I now think it will be a much longer road to cashflow breakeven than I previously though. Already way over-weight so not sinking any more funds in until they can prove themselves to be self-sufficient. Good science can often be destroyed by bad financials.
Also, they had $420M in cash as of Feb 2025, with cash burn of "under $300M" for 2025, which means an additional $250M for remainder of 2025 (straight lining expenses) so $120M cash going into 2026. Guidance of cash into H2 2026 would mean cash burn of less than $120M for first 6-9 months of 2026, so $13M-$20M/ month, but that isn't much less than the current $25M/month
Personally not adding more until they actual say they can fund operations from current revenue. May miss the bottom, but I now think it will be a much longer road to cashflow breakeven than I previously though. Already way over-weight so not sinking any more funds in until they can prove themselves to be self-sufficient. Good science can often be destroyed by bad financials.
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