Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hey Dennboy! On Stocktwits I posted a summary of that full paper in Cancer Cell. I’m a postdoc so I have access to all journals.
https://stocktwits.com/InvestingSince2021/message/580097878
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-07-tumor-infiltrating-lymphocyte-therapy-milestone.html
People have been postulating on the dropout rate.
This article gives the rate for the Moffitt center at 5%. I would assume that since this is the site with longest history in providing TIL therapy then that would be the best rate. Still, I would think that most of the premier cancer centers would be in line with that number. Appears to be lower than people were thinking.
Here is the full article in the medical journal. Let me know if you have the credentials to access as this only gives snippets.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S153561082400240X?via%3Dihub
I had made that point in the past: They are attracting employees by granting options not common shares and therefore it is in their interest to have the SP as low as possible in the period they are recruiting most of these new employees to make the package attractive.
This, in addition to the fact they don't need to raise new capital yet, partially explain why the shareholders are not intervening to support the share price. It is not in their interest YET.
FWIW, Iovance has 19 new, non-executive employees getting awarded their inducement grants: https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-reports-inducement-grants-under-20 . The point here is the company continues to expand its operation, they continue to hire more employees for what is likely a very good ramp-up of demand, but they continue their quiet approach to sharing numbers (it's still just too early to worry). Q2 will provide some insights, we'll likely get a glimpse into Q3 with some forward guidance, but we're still several Q's of revenue reporting away from the general market knowing how to value IOVA and to evaluate this company's growth potential. Everything still looks great to me except the stock price. Good luck to the longs.
I just got home from one business trip and I'm heading out again for another.
I'll catch up with all of you later.
Badgerkid
I may start flipping this one once ir goes back up. Which is what I believe is happening.
I share your frustration × 10.
I began to believe that the pain was over, I built back my position to 125k shares (and believe me this is a lot of money for me) then the decline started all over again. Another lesson learnt the hard way.
I will now adopt a passive attitude (just hold) until the SP reached the 25$... will not be excited when it goes up or get depressed when it drops...
Until then, I wish you all a very nice holiday and summer.
Really no need to post anything as this stock is in control of HFs that are short. They coordinated a nice move up to 9.50 by not shorting. They waited for people to buy and then hammered it down 18% in 2 days. I have been in biotech for years and the stocks are extremely volatile. Still, this stock has become a vehicle for HF money making through coordinated SP control. It is not trading normally in that for the last 2 days every tick on the ask has been refreshed and loaded to overcome the bid. Really nothing more to say. There is no need to comment on the stock anymore as it is meaningless until earnings are released. Currently, it is just a playground for shorts.
And that is a real shame as it has a drug/procedure that can provide hope and recovery for people at the potential end of their life. I get shorting some stocks, but this one is - to me -unethical. I CAN NOT WAIT for the day this company crushes the shorts via earnings or buyout. It will be the best day as I will make a ton of money with a company that is saving lives while seeing the shorts lose a ton.
Just MM shaking the tree. They'll pick up weak hand shares. ;0.
Although I run marathons, I still fear a heart attack on our journey to the 25+ SP....
$7.17 last week. $9.56 yesterday, Not for the faint of heart!
GMH, and that's why we're here, Iovance's future looks incredibly bright for both patients and investors alike. Though I disagree on the buyout scenario, I understand your view (and desire) that iovance continues on its own as a stand alone. If this management team and group of investors wish to continue on that path, the rewards could and should be enormous, but I also don't think big pharma wants that risk. I expect that some company will eventually make an offer that just can't be refused when it's put to a vote of the majority owners. That said, if the major shareholders are all on the same page, your scenario is certainly possible, but my gut says that there could be dissension in the ranks should a significant offer be made. I'm good with both scenarios. We're nowhere near my target price, so all of this conjecture is just a way to pass the time while Iovance continues to execute on its plan of multiple approvals and additional markets.
BTW, at 10,000 patients treated per year (which would require NSCLC approval), on a purely financial PE basis, I have this at a fair value of about twice that.
Even at the $125 price, the market cap of IOVA would be $35B which is almost twice the BO price of Phamacyclics and roughly equal to the BO price of Seagen and that is before any buyout premium is applied. That is why I think that IOVA will go it alone to maximize shareholder value. I think that if you wait for a buyout, you may just end up being a long-term shareholder waiting forever, but that will still be a very profitable investment. Just know at what point the upside potential is no longer worth the downside risk.
I am primarily a fundamentalist investor and not really proficient in technical analysis, but it does seem to me that we are at the upper bound of a downward channel. I am guessing if we can break that level (around 10 visually assessed), we should run to the $12-$14 level . Where we go from there will depend on earnings/guidance. If that is good, think we need to get thru the overhead supply at $16-$18 level for further upward movement. I generally do not timebound my investments (just my catalyst trading) so again, just a curious exercise for me, but that is how I see it from my very limited technical viewpoint.
Keep up the great DD and posts here! Thanks everyone. $10 - $15 soon looks like a possibility here.
You can tell that the HF are on board with this increase relative to the way it trades. The technical levels were all respected on the 5 min chart. 1. Retracement to 1 day - 61.8 was almost to the exact penny at 8.90 (this is a typical buy point level for traders if it holds). It held and took off. 2. It basically rode the 9 EMA and would bounce off of 20 EMA (up until EOD profit taking). You only typically see this respect of technical levels when the big money is on board.
On a larger frame - We broke and held both 200 SMA and 50 SMA on daily .
Volume on bid was there all day with no overpowering volume on the ask.
IMO - we are in the midst of a shift with short covering and accumulation. Technical traders set alerts when 200 SMA are remounted and held. So I would think that more buying interest will show up.
Badger, fantastic find & very intriguing read!
Iovance is on deck or in the hole, as Wayne n his team stay Patient as time alone will catapult Iovance’s Merck (most likely to me) buyout comes in 2025/2026
For $125-$165 in my opinion.
We need: Front Line w/Keytruda (Merck exclusivity runs out soon in 2028)
NSCLC-Accelerated Approval
Head/Neck/Throat or Cervical Accelerated Approval.
3-Approved indications along w approvals in EU, Canada, Australia & Japan all probable, takes us well into the triple digits, buyout wise.
Wayne in my opinion will NOT just settle on a lower buyout due to his failure to see the forest thru the tree$ in his Acerta deal.
He knows all too well how Pharmacylcics (spelling off) got to $325….
Our Maz Buyout under this laid out above is $245 with stock options n future royalties, in my opinion.
Time will tell n be PATIENT.
#CureCancer
OT, but to paint a picture of all the M&A activity this year:
*********************************************************************************
(This was pulled from Contract Pharma, https://www.contractpharma.com/ )
2024 Pharmaceutical Industry Mergers & Acquisitions Roundup
A quick reference of all the mergers and acquisitions that took place within the global pharmaceuticals market in 2024.
2024 Pharmaceutical Industry Mergers & Acquisitions Roundup
Charles Sternberg, Associate Editor 01.31.24
The global pharmaceutical industry witnesses an excess of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity every year—probably more than most other industries—both in the number of deals and the amount of money spent on M&A.
From big game-changing deals to smaller yet still significant transactions, M&A is an integral part of the operations of pharma companies, especially as the cost of drug development consistently increases year-after-year.
Below is a frequently updated list of all the transactions that have taken place within 2024. Return often to stay informed on the latest deals occurring within the industry and to get a brief recap of the most important details.
Thermo Fisher Scientific—Olink
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. completed its acquisition of Olink Holding AB, a provider of next-generation proteomics solutions.
Date of announcement: July 10, 2024
Value: $3.1 billion
Lilly—Morphic
Eli Lilly and Company and Morphic Holding, Inc. announced a definitive agreement for Lilly to acquire Morphic, a biopharmaceutical company developing oral integrin therapies for treatment of serious chronic diseases.
Date of announcement: July 8, 2024
Value: undisclosed
Medpharm—Tergus Pharma
MedPharm, a global topical and transdermal CDMO and an Ampersand Capital Partners portfolio company, is merging with Tergus Pharma, a Great Point Partners portfolio company.
Date of announcement: July 8, 2024
Olon Group—GTP Bioways
Olon Group acquired GTP Bioways Group, a French company operating as Biotech CDMO and specializing in R&D services, process development and production of mAbs, enzymes, proteins, nanodrugs, ADCs and fill-finish.
Date of announcement: July 3, 2024
Value: undisclosed
Alcon—BELKIN
Alcon, a global leader in eye care, has acquired BELKIN Vision, including BELKIN Vision’s Direct Selective Laser Trabeculoplasty (DSLT) technology, expanding Alcon’s glaucoma portfolio with a first-line therapy.
Date of announcement: July 1, 2024
Value: $81 million
Rhenopharma—Konapharma
Rhenopharma Group has acquired Konapharma AG, a Swiss contract manufacturer for the pharmaceutical industry. Within the new group of companies, Konapharma now complements the services of packaging company Allpack and Rhenochem.
Date of announcement: June 27, 2024
Value: undisclosed
CatSci—Reach Separations
CatSci Ltd, an innovation partner for medicines development, has acquired Reach Separations, a specialist chromatography provider for the analysis and purification of therapeutics.
Date of announcement: June 26, 2024
Value: undisclosed
ANI Pharmaceuticals—Alimera Sciences
ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc. agreed to acquire Alimera Sciences Inc., a global pharmaceutical company whose mission is to be invaluable to patients, physicians and partners concerned with maintaining better vision longer.
Date of announcement: June 24, 2024
Value: $381 million
Great Point Partners—Lyocontract GmbH
Great Point Partners, a Greenwich-based investment firm focused exclusively on the health care industry, acquired Lyocontract GmbH, a premium independent drug product contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) based in Ilsenburg, Germany.
Date of announcement: June 13, 2024
Value: undisclosed
Ono—Deciphera Pharmaceuticals
Ono Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. completed its previously announced tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of U.S. biopharmaceutical company Deciphera Pharmaceuticals Inc. through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Topaz Merger Sub Inc.
Date of announcement: June 12, 2024
Value: $2.4 billion
EQT—CluePoints
The EQT Healthcare Growth Strategy and the EQT Growth Fund agreed to acquire a majority stake in CluePoints, with meaningful reinvestment from the management team and existing shareholders Summit Partners and Clinimetrics SA.
Date of announcement: June 12, 2024
Value: undisclosed
Aterian Investment Partners—CPL
One of Aterian Investment Partners’ affiliates closed its acquisition of Contract Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Canada, a North American contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) of non-sterile liquid and semi-solid dosage forms.
Date of announcement: June 6, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Formosa Labs—Synchem
Formosa Laboratories, Inc., an API supplier and CDMO headquartered in Taiwan, completed its acquisition of SynChem, Inc., a contract research laboratory located in suburban Chicago. SynChem will now operate under the new name SynChem-Formosa.
Date of announcement: June 4, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Merck—EyeBio
Merck, known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, entered into a definitive agreement under which it will acquire Eyebiotech Limited (EyeBio), a privately held ophthalmology-focused biotechnology company.
Date of announcement: May 29, 2024
Value: $3 billion
Asahi Kasei—Calliditas
Asahi Kasei Corp. offered to acquire the shares of the pharmaceutical company Calliditas Therapeutics AB to make Calliditas a wholly-owned subsidiary of Asahi Kasei.
Date of announcement: May 28, 2024
Value: $1.1 billion
Orna Therapeutics—ReNAgade
Orna Therapeutics, a biotechnology company dedicated to designing and delivering a new class of fully engineered circular RNA therapeutics (oRNA), has acquired ReNAgade Therapeutics, a pioneer in unlocking the potential of RNA therapeutics.
Date of announcement: May 23, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
MilliporeSigma—Mirus Bio
MilliporeSigma, the U.S. and Canada Life Science business of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, signed a definitive agreement to acquire Mirus Bio.
Date of announcement: May 23, 2024
Value: $600 million
Biogen—HI-Bio
Biogen Inc. and Human Immunology Biosciences (HI-Bio), a privately-held clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on targeted therapies for patients with severe immune-mediated diseases (IMDs), entered into a definitive agreement under which Biogen will acquire HI-Bio.
Date of announcement: May 22, 2024
Value: $1.15 billion upfront and up to $650 million in potential milestone payments
Johnson & Johnson—Proteologix
Johnson & Johnson entered a definitive agreement to acquire Proteologix Inc., a privately-held biotechnology company focused on bispecific antibodies for immune-mediated diseases.
Date of announcement: May 16, 2024
Value: $850 million in cash, with potential for an additional milestone payment
Selvita—PozLab
Selvita S.A. completed its strategic acquisition of PozLab, a CDMO offering drug product development services and small pilot plant capabilities, including analytical, formulation, and process development competencies, followed by microbiological testing.
Date of announcement: May 7, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
LSL Pharma—Target Co.
LSL Pharma Group Inc., a Canadian integrated pharmaceutical company, entered into a binding Letter of Intent to acquire Target Co., a privately held, Quebec-based competing contract drug manufacturer (CDMO) specialized in the formulation, production, and marketing of natural products.
Date of announcement: May 6, 2024
Value: $2.5 million
Novartis—Mariana Oncology
Novartis agreed to acquire Mariana Oncology, a preclinical-stage biotechnology company based in Watertown, MA focused on developing radioligand therapies (RLTs) to treat cancers.
Date of announcement: May 3, 2024
Value: $1 billion upfront + $750 million in payments upon completion of pre-specified milestones
Myonex—Creapharm
Myonex completed the acquisition of Creapharm's pharmaceutical services business.
Date of announcement: May 2, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Ono Pharmaceuticals—Deciphera
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals LLC., a biopharmaceutical company, entered into a definitive merger agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical Company, Ltd. (ONO) under which ONO will acquire all outstanding shares of Deciphera common stock in cash through a tender offer followed by a merger of Deciphera with a wholly-owned subsidiary of ONO.
Date of announcement: April 29, 2024
Value: $2.4 billion
Eli Lilly and Company—Nexus Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly and Company agreed to acquire a manufacturing facility from Nexus Pharmaceuticals, a leading sterile manufacturer in the pharmaceutical industry.
Date of announcement: April 24, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Ku¨hne Holding AG—Aenova Group
Ku¨hne Holding AG agreed to acquire pharma contract development and manufacturing organization Aenova Group from international investment firm BC Partners.
Date of announcement: April 24, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Incyte Corp.—Escient Pharmaceuticals
Incyte Corp. entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Escient Pharmaceuticals, a clinical-stage drug discovery and development company advancing small molecules for systemic immune and neuro-immune disorders.
Date of announcement: April 23, 2024
Value: $750 million plus Escient’s net cash remaining at the close of the transaction
Qinesca Solutions—Insife ApS
Qinecsa Solutions, a provider of technology pharmacovigilance solutions, acquired Insife ApS (Insife), a Danish-based software, technology, and consultancy firm specializing in developing pharmacovigilance platforms.
Date of announcement: April 11, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Eliem Therapeutics—Tenet Medicines
Eliem Therapeutics Inc. and Tenet Medicines Inc., a development-stage private biotechnology company, have entered into a definitive acquisition agreement whereby Eliem has agreed to acquire Tenet.
Date of announcement: April 11, 2024
Value: $210 million
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.—Alpine Immune Sciences Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Alpine Immune Sciences Inc., a biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing innovative, protein-based immunotherapies, have entered into a definitive agreement under which Vertex will acquire Alpine for $65 per share.
Date of announcement: April 11, 2024
Value: $4.9 billion
Essential Pharma—Renaissance Pharma
Essential Pharma, an international specialty pharma group, completed the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of Renaissance Pharma Ltd., a clinical stage pharmaceutical company focused on the development of life-changing therapies in pediatric rare disease.
Date of announcement: April 9, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
CoreRx Inc.—Societal CDMO Inc.
CoreRx Inc. completed its previously announced acquisition of Societal CDMO Inc., a contract development and manufacturing organization dedicated to solving complex formulation and manufacturing challenges primarily focused on small molecule therapeutics.
Date of announcement: April 9, 2024
Value: $130 million
Johnson & Johnson—Shockwave Medical
Johnson & Johnson entered into a definitive agreement to acquire all outstanding shares of Shockwave Medical, Inc.
Date of announcement: April 5, 2024
Value: $13.1 billion
Kintara Therapeutics—TuHURA Biosciences
Kintara Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company investigating REM-001 in an NIH-sponsored and funded open label study in cutaneous metastatic breast cancer, and TuHURA Biosciences, Inc., a Phase 3 registration-stage immune-oncology company developing novel technologies to overcome resistance to cancer immunotherapy, have entered into a definitive agreement for an all-stock transaction forming a company with expertise and resources to advance a risk diversified late-stage oncology pipeline.
Date of announcement: April 3, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Genmab—ProfoundBio
Genmab entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ProfoundBio Inc., a privately-owned clinical-stage biotechnology company developing next-generation ADCs and ADC technologies for the treatment of certain cancers, including ovarian cancer and other FRa-expressing solid tumors.
Date of announcement: April 3, 2024
Value: $1.8 billion
Bora Pharmaceuticals—Upsher-Smith Laboratories
Bora Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. completed the acquisition of Upsher-Smith Laboratories, LLC., a generics manufacturer and marketer based in Minnesota, from its sellers, Sawai Group Holdings and Sumitomo Corp. of Americas.
Date of announcement: April 2, 2024
Value: $210 million
Veeda Clinical Research—Heads
Veeda Clinical Research Ltd., a full-service contract research organization (CRO), acquired Heads, a privately held European CRO specializing in conducting clinical trials in oncology.
Date of announcement: March 26, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Novo Nordisk—Cardior Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk agreed to acquire Cardior Pharmaceuticals, an expert in the discovery and development of therapies that target RNA to prevent, repair and reverse diseases of the heart.
Date of announcement: March 25, 2024
Value: $1.12 billion
AbbVie—Landos Biopharma
AbbVie Inc. agreed to acquire Landos Biopharma Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of novel, oral therapeutics for patients with autoimmune diseases.
Date of announcement: March 25, 2024
Value: $137.5 million
Ampersand Capital Partners—Biologos LLC
Ampersand Capital Partners, a private equity firm specializing in growth equity investments in the life sciences and healthcare sectors, acquired Biologos LLC, a full-service manufacturer of custom and standard cell culture media, reagents, buffers, enzymes, and sera.
Date of announcement: March 20, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
AstraZeneca—Fusion Pharmaceuticals
AstraZeneca entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Fusion Pharmaceuticals Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing next-generation radioconjugates (RCs).
Date of announcement: March 19, 2024
Value: $2.4 billion
Bristol Myers Squibb—Karuna Therapeutics
Bristol Myers Squibb completed its acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Karuna is now a wholly owned subsidiary of BMS.
Date of announcement: March 18, 2024
Value: $14 billion
AstraZeneca—Amolyt Pharma
AstraZeneca entered a definitive agreement to acquire Amolyt Pharma, a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing treatments for rare endocrine diseases.
Date of announcement: March 14, 2024
Value: $1.05 billion
Novartis—IFM Due
Novartis exercised its option to acquire all outstanding capital stock of IFM Due, a subsidiary company of IFM developing small molecules that inhibit the cGAS-STING pathway.
Date of announcement: March 13, 2024
Value: $90 million upfront plus up to $745 million in milestones
Johnson & Johnson—Ambrx
Johnson & Johnson acquired Ambrx Biopharma Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a proprietary synthetic biology technology platform to design and develop next-generation antibody drug conjugates (ADCs).
Date of announcement: March 7, 2024
Value: $2 billion
Eilean Therapeutics—Ness Therapeutics
Eilean Therapeutics LLC, a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to discovering and developing small molecule inhibitors to target resistance mechanisms in hematologic and solid malignancies, acquired Ness Therapeutics Inc in an all-equity transaction.
Date of announcement: March 4, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
CoreRx—Societal CDMO
CoreRx Inc. agreed to acquire Societal CDMO, Inc., a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) dedicated to solving complex formulation and manufacturing challenges primarily in small molecule therapeutic development.
Date of announcement: February 29, 2024
Value: $130M
Ginkgo Bioworks—Patch Biosciences
Ginkgo Bioworks acquired Patch Biosciences, which has built an AI platform for sequence design that enables more effective, specific, and durable genetic medicines and was backed by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Bio + Health, Casdin Capital, and S32.
Date of announcement: February 28, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Ginkgo Bioworks—Proof Diagnostics
Ginkgo Bioworks acquired Proof Diagnostics, an innovative life sciences tools, diagnostics and computational discovery company which uncovered genome engineering tools for both therapeutic and diagnostics applications while developing a smart, portable system for the detection of infectious and other diseases.
Date of announcement: February 28, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Telix Pharmaceuticals—IsoTherapeutics Group
Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited entered into an agreement to acquire IsoTherapeutics Group, LLC, a specialty radiopharmaceutical development and bioconjugation firm, based in Angleton, Texas.
Date of announcement: February 27, 2024
Value: $8M upfront + milestone payments
AstraZeneca—Gracell Biotechnologies
AstraZeneca successfully completed its acquisition of Gracell Biotechnologies Inc., a global clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing cell therapies for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases, furthering AstraZeneca’s cell therapy ambition.
Date of announcement: February 23, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Telix—QSAM
Telix agreed to acquire QSAM Biosciences Inc.—a U.S.-based company developing therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals for primary and metastatic bone cancer—and its lead investigational drug Samarium-153-DOTMP (153Sm-DOTMP).
Date of announcement: February 13, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
Exponent—Chanelle Pharma
Chanelle Pharma, Ireland’s largest indigenous manufacturer of generic pharmaceuticals for animal and human health, was sold by its founder Michael H Burke to Exponent, a private equity firm.
Date of announcement: February 13, 2024
Value: Undisclosed
BioVaxys—IMV Inc.
BioVaxys Technology Corp. acquired the entire portfolio of discovery, preclinical and clinical development stage assets in oncology, infectious disease, antigen desensitization, and other immunological fields based on the DPX immune educating platform technology, developed by IMV Inc., Immunovaccine Technologies Inc., and IMV USA (IMV).
Date of announcement: February 12, 2024
Value: $750,000 upfront cash payment
AbbVie—Immunogen
AbbVie completed its acquisition of ImmunoGen Inc., which is now part of AbbVie, gaining its flagship cancer therapy ELAHERE (mirvetuximab soravtansine-gynx), a first-in-class antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) approved for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC).
Date of announcement: February 12, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
Gilead Sciences—CymaBay Therapeutics
Gilead Sciences Inc. entered a definitive agreement under which it will acquire CymaBay Therapeutics Inc.
Date of announcement: February 12, 2024
Value: $4.3 billion
Jazz Pharmaceuticals—Redx Pharma
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc and Redx Pharma plc signed a definitive agreement under which Jazz will acquire Redx's KRAS (Kirsten rat sarcoma virus) inhibitor program.
Date of announcement: February 8, 2024
Value: $10 million upfront
Novartis—MorphoSys AG
Novartis entered an agreement to make a voluntary public takeover offer to acquire MorphoSys AG, a Germany-based, global biopharmaceutical company developing oncology medicines.
Date of announcement: February 6, 2024
Value: €2.7 billion ($2.9 billion)
Novo Holdings—Catalent
Catalent Inc., a global CDMO headquartered in New Jersey, and Novo Holdings, a holding and investment company that is responsible for managing the assets and wealth of the Novo Nordisk Foundation, entered into a merger agreement under which Novo Holdings will acquire Catalent in an all-cash transaction.
Date of Announcement: February 5, 2024
Value: $16.5 billion
Biovian—3P
Biologics CDMOs Biovian and 3P Biopharmaceuticals combined with the aim of establishing a new pan-European leader in their field.
Date of Announcement: February 2, 2024
Value: Gross sales exceed $81 million
Regeneron—2seventy Bio
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. formed Regeneron Cell Medicines based on an agreement with 2seventy bio, Inc., under which it acquired full development and commercialization rights to its pipeline of investigational novel immune cell therapies, along with its discovery and clinical manufacturing capabilities.
Date of Announcement: January 30, 2024
Value: $5 million and a single milestone payment
Avrobio—Tectonic Therapeutic
Avrobio Inc., a clinical stage gene therapy company, and Tectonic Therapeutic Inc., a privately-held biotechnology company developing GPCR (G-protein coupled receptor)-targeted therapeutic proteins, entered into a definitive merger agreementto combine in an all-stock transaction.
Date of Announcement: January 30, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
Oxford Biomedica—ABL Europe
Oxford Biomedica plc, a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, completed its previously announced acquisition of ABL Europe SAS from Institut Mérieux SA.
Date of Announcement: January 29, 2024
Value: $16.3 million
Bruker—Chemspeed Technologies
Bruker Corp. entered a definitive agreement to acquire Chemspeed Technologies AG, a Swiss provider of vendor-agnostic automated laboratory R&D and QC workflow solutions.
Date of Announcement: January 25, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
Sandoz—CIMERLI
Sandoz, a generic and biosimilar medicines company, signed an agreement to acquire the U.S. biosimilar ranibizumab CIMERLI (ranibizumab-eqrn) from Coherus BioSciences, Inc.
Date of Announcement: January 24, 2024
Value: $170 million upfront
Sanofi—Inhibrx
Sanofi entered into a definitive agreement under which its subsidiary Aventis Inc. will acquire all assets and liabilities associated with INBRX-101, an optimized, recombinant alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) augmentation therapy currently in a registrational trial for the treatment of alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD).
Date of Announcement: January 24, 2024
Value: $2.2 billion
Bora Pharmaceuticals—Upsher-Smith
Bora Pharmaceuticals acquired Upsher-Smith Laboratories, a generics manufacturer based in Minnesota.
Date of Announcement: January 23, 2024
Value: $210 million
Alcami—Pacific Pharmaceutical Services
Alcami Corporation, a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO), completed the acquisition of Pacific Pharmaceutical Services (PPS), a preferred provider of cGMP pharma storage and services.
Date of Announcement: January 19, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
Iuvo BioScience—Promedica International
iuvo BioScience, a specialty PRO (Partner Research Organization) providing preclinical and clinical development services, lab services, and scientific consulting, acquired Promedica International, a California Corp. (PMI), a specialty ophthalmology-focused clinical CRO.
Date of Announcement: January 18, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
Kindeva Drug Delivery—Summit Biosciences
Kindeva Drug Delivery acquired Summit Biosciences Inc., an intranasal drug-delivery CDMO, adding a new drug-delivery platform and further expanding Kindeva’s capabilities across a wider range of complex drug-device combination products (pulmonary, injectable, transdermal, and nasal).
Date of Announcement: January 18, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
Merck—Harpoon Therapeutics
Merck entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Harpoon Therapeutics Inc., which has a portfolio of novel T-cell engagers that employ the company’s Tri-specific T cell Activating Construct (TriTAC) platform.
Date of Announcement: January 9, 2024
Value: $680 million
Johnson & Johnson—Ambrx Biopharma
Johnson & Johnson entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ambrx Biopharma Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a synthetic biology technology platform to design and develop next-generation antibody drug conjugates (ADCs).
Date of Announcement: January 9, 2024
Value: $2 billion
GSK—Aiolos Bio
GSK plc entered into an agreement to acquire Aiolos Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on treatments for certain respiratory and inflammatory conditions.
Date of Announcement: January 9, 2024
Value: $1 billion upfront and as much as $400 million in success-based regulatory milestones
Novartis—Calypso Biotech
Novartis AG entered an agreement to acquire Calypso Biotech BV, a developer of Interleukin15 (IL-15) targeted therapies.
Date of Announcement: January 8, 2024
Value: $250 million upfront upon closing and potential development milestones of up to $175 million
Novartis—SanReno Therapeutics
SanReno Therapeutics, a clinical-stage company specializing in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for kidney diseases, has been acquired by Novartis. SanReno will become an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Novartis.
Date of Announcement: January 5, 2024
Value: Not disclosed
It answered your prayer. Back to 9.27.
Technically - looking solid here. Break and hold the 9.27 region and we could have a real squeeze here.
Over the weekend, I was contemplating the cash runway and potential for a cash raise. So we know they have said "well into H2 2025" but that does include a "conservative estimate of revenue", but exactly what does that mean? We know that they have cash as of Q1 2024 of $356M and the quarterly spend is between $80M-$85M. Taking the midpoint, the cash on hand would last 4.3 quarters ($356M/$82.5M) so assuming well into means thru Q3 2025, the revenue would need to cover the remaining 1.7 quarters or $139M (1.7x$82.5M). That would imply revenue of $23M/qtr for the 6 quarters (assuming no ramp). We are almost certain to beat $23M in Q2 and should ramp from there so I would say that calculation is ultra-conservative. I do think that they will raise capital, probably after Q3 or Q4 results, just to have a cushion for new trials/expansion, etc. Anyway, just a curious exercise.
Summer is the off season wait for 2025 and yess it will come
Plus - European acceptance of BLA.
Plus - Australia and UK submission
We have now Q2 results + Q3 guidance (hopefully) in August, a probable rate cut in September, Q3 results + FY guidance in Oct, another rate cut in Dec followed by 24 results + guidance for 25 in Jan.
If all goes well, we should be back > 15 level by Jan.
Our faith in this company will sooner or later pay off.
Gentlemen and Ladies. Even though I don't drink, tonight would be a good one to sit down and have a nice 25 yo Macallan neat. 👍️😁. Broke and held SMA 50 on weekly which is huge. The big one now is 9.02 200 SMA on daily. Typically need 3 taps of that price to get higher likelihood of break. Bids were definitely loading at key levels - sometimes with very large volume. Next week looks much brighter than the previous 18 next weeks.
this can't go that high lol, the truth with bio's is cringeworthy. Not too optimistic on big gains but definitely from the lows we saw earlier this week
Great! Run this to $100 this Summer and I will give you 10% of my profits! What a swell guy you are!
Everton44, Your a Complete Moron GO Away!
I control the market
Well, it is cheaper in paying for Comedy Club tickets!
Surfkast, I don't know if there's an answer that will make sense. I noticed that he/she has posted on over 130 different boards over the past several years. Certainly raises more than a few questions. Have a great day.
Serious question. Are you bi-polar? Last week you posted the following and now you are buying?
everton44
Re: everton44 post# 1266
Friday, July 05, 2024 12:37:58 PM
Post#
1267
of 1312
SOLD SHORT 11,388 MADE. TYVM IOVA! NEXT....
added 3500 at $9.00!
going to be a millionaire now. go IOVA!!!!!!!!!!!
Hicham, to your point and fwiw, iShares Russell 2000 ETF as of Jun 28, 2024 added 622,279 shares of IOVA and now stands at 6,157,247 shares. More interesting is the new position of IOVA that was created by the iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF which as of Jun 28, 2024 is at 2,234,456 shares after their initial purchase. As more reports come in over the next several weeks, I'll be curious to see if and where any changes to positions in IOVA occurred. As for me, I do expect higher highs in the IOVA share price yet this year.
Good luck to you.
The net short position against Russell 2000 futures increased by 9.5 percentage points to 16.8% over 5 weeks, the largest such move over since March 2020 which caused the drop in Iovance and others and now it is payback time as the trend reverses, at least I hope.
Apparently a short squeeze is taking place. Hedge funds strategies have been heavile centred in 2024 on going long large-cap tech stocks and betting against other areas of the market, including small- and midcap stocks.
With the inflation figures yesterday and as money started flowing from megacap to small to mid cap a shott squeeze was initiated and according to some analysts this can last for a while as long as the probability of a rate cut in Sep remains high. If this continues until 6th of August and iovance reports good Q2 results and Q3 guidance then we are back > 12 to 15 before year end IMHO...
LoL... I have been modeling out the potential of NSCLC and hitting the 10,000 capacity from early on, so, although a lot of hurdles yet to clear, that is my 5 year target (which is why going from $18 to $7 made no sense unless I am wrong in my thinking). Issue is that if we get to $100, that would be about a $28B market cap which is what Seagen was before their buyout. They got a 33% premium on the takeover. The bigger you get, the less upside BP is willing to pay so that is why I think they will go it alone and just add new indications over time.
GMH, I think we have similar thoughts on numbers and when/how they can or will be achieved. The $100/share aspirations statement is not just a throw away comment, but I also don't think that number is achievable until and unless there are 2 or more indications approved and being treated: melanoma, nsclc, and maybe one additional type of cancer.
Should the company get to the point that 8,000+ patients are being treated each year, $3 billion per year and growing in revenue, and treatment centers and manufacturing capabilities on multiple continents, $100/share will be in the rearview mirror. I see the vision of what can be, but time is still needed to develop this great potential. What we don't know is what WR and this group of investors imagine for their own futures. There's history on these individuals, but as we age, our goals and motivations change as well. Is this company and TIL therapy to be their legacy? Or is this yet again a build and sell opportunity for them.
There is some incredible advances taking place right before our eyes, improvements will be made, newer and better ways of using TIL will be developed, and likely many different applications will become more obvious. But time is needed to accomplish all of these goals. The science is solid but the commercial application is still unproven. The good news is that recent indications are Iovance is succeeding and growing. We'll get a glimpse behind the current with the Q2, but it's still going to take several Q's of earnings to demonstrate the speed with which this new therapy will be taken up by the medical community and the company's ability to manage the logistical demands of this individualized type of treatment.
If we're guilty of anything, it's we've been thinking too small on this one. If we're guilty of anything else, it's we expected IOVA to hit $50 or more too fast. I like what I see, I'm in for the long haul at this point, and all indications are we're on a very good path.
BK - Although you consolidate a lot of the parameters I model individually, I come up with a similar number moving this from a biotech startup to an IBB pharma company (I do use the IBB PE though which is a bit lower than your PE). The only thing I would challenge is your last statement as I do not think big pharma would pay such a premium over the current stock price in a BO (limit is usually around 100%). Once we price in everything getting to a an $8B MC, the BO premium would drop further (40%-50%). Given WRs age and the frequency (or lack thereof) at which this opportunities present themselves, it is my guess that it is his goal to ride this out building out several iCTCs in the US/Europe and probably on in Australia and Asia eventually. Just don't think he is looking for a 3x (from his $9.15 purchase) at this point in his investing career. As long as the trial data continues to support expansion, think that is the route he will chose to go. I will be monitoring same.
Looks like this one is moving back up rapidly. More good news pending?
Well.. we have been on here posting many times when the SP was getting crushed. Today is a different story and it feels pretty darn good. Short thesis of a poor launch leading to an early raise with the SP down has been hampered today. Looks like we are in for a rate cut here soon with about 92% odds now for a cut in Sept. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
We have a shift from big tech to more rate sensitive indices (IWM, XBI). You can see the bid constantly being reloaded and the 5 min retracements being bought.
If we hold 8.08 we have remounted the 20 EMA on daily. We are currently sitting at the 50 SMA on weekly of 8.50. Have a feeling that we will need some company positive news (Instead of just interest rate macro event) to break that 8.50. Hope I am wrong though. Who knows maybe short covering will do it.
Enjoying the day.
Appreiciate all your posts. Have had this on my watch list since the spring news and resultant pop.
I've not been active in the markets for over 20 years.... but about to dip my feet, but mostly in ETF, hi yield investments for retirement income, etc. So....
A morning of simple math: Let's assume $425 million for annual expenses - it's probably going up a bit with expansion, more trials, European rollout, more employees, etc.
Let's assume all in a treatment with Amtagvi and Proleukin produces revenue for Iovance of $425,000/patient on average (this covers for discounts, other expenses that may exist with ATCs, etc). I realize this is a conservative average but it makes the math easy. That means no more than 1,000 patients to break even. 2,350 patients for $1 billion in total revenue. With 70 ATCs by end of year, that's 1.2 patients/ATC/month for break even and 2.8 patients/ATC/month for $1 billion in revenue. Now, reduce your expenses, increase your net revenue and you have an even bigger winner. The company keeps talking about 3, 4, and 5 patients per ATC per month. Do your own math - it's still a big winner.
I did say simple math so please be gentle with your critiques.
Let's continue: Even with 2,000 patients annually and nothing more using my overly conservative numbers, you have net profit of $425 million or about $1.50 per share. Similar biotechs trade around 22x earnings, so with nothing more than this base operation IOVA is $33/share. Now let's throw in growth potential, more indications, new markets, frontline treatments, etc., we start seeing why some have $100/share and higher aspirations. They're not wrong for thinking it or believing it could be so in the coming years. If big pharma is going to acquire Iovance, they better bring a healthy check book sooner than later. IMHO of course.
Good luck to the longs.
Short interest was up another 2 million shares. As of 06/28/2024, short interest was 56.4 million shares from the 54.6 million on the last report. I thought it would be mostly flat to slightly higher, but the shorts were persistent throughout June. Let the fear of being short begin. Higher highs this year and soon we'll have some of the reasons revealed. Good luck to the longs.
I just did too. Ahhhhhhhhh :)
NEWS, IOVA gets approval of Melanoma and Cancer research
Iovance Biotherapeutics is pioneering a transformational approach to treating cancer by harnessing the ability of the human immune system to recognize and attack diverse cancer cells in each patient.
Iovance Biotherapeutics aims to be the global leader in innovating, developing and delivering tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) therapy for people with cancer. We are pioneering a transformational approach to treating cancer by harnessing the ability of the human immune system to recognize and attack diverse cancer cells in each patient. The Iovance TIL platform has demonstrated promising clinical data across multiple solid tumors. We are committed to continuous innovation in cell therapy, including gene-edited cell therapy, which may be a promising option for patients with cancer.
We are a patient-centric, collaborative organization that is driven to change the way cancer is treated. We are agile in our thinking and strive for excellence and innovation while acting with high integrity to create value for all stakeholders.
Tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) are naturally occurring immune cells that fight cancer. TIL are on constant surveillance to recognize, attack and kill cancer cells. When cancer invades and prevails, the TIL are unable to perform their intended function. Investigational TIL therapies are designed to reinvigorate a patient’s TIL to fight cancer. A patient’s naturally occurring TIL are collected and grown outside the body so they can be administered back to the patient as a one-time treatment. Once inside the body, Iovance TIL therapy deploys billions of personalized, patient-specific TIL to recognize and target diverse cancer cells.
TIL monotherapy and TIL combination therapies are being investigated in clinical studies in multiple advanced solid tumor cancers including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, cervical cancer and head and neck cancer.
AMTAGVI is the first FDA-approved T cell therapy for a solid tumor cancer and first treatment option for advanced melanoma after anti-PD-1 and targeted therapy
AMTAGVI deploys patient-specific immune cells that recognize and fight cancer
SAN CARLOS, Calif., Feb. 16, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: IOVA), a biotechnology company focused on innovating, developing and delivering novel polyclonal tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) cell therapies for patients with cancer, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved AMTAGVI™ (lifileucel) suspension for intravenous infusion. AMTAGVI is a tumor-derived autologous T cell immunotherapy indicated for the treatment of adult patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma previously treated with a PD-1 blocking antibody, and if BRAF V600 mutation positive, a BRAF inhibitor with or without a MEK inhibitor. This indication is approved under an accelerated approval based on overall response rate (ORR) and duration of response. Iovance is also conducting TILVANCE-301, a Phase 3 trial to confirm clinical benefit.
AMTAGVI is the first and the only one-time, individualized T cell therapy to receive FDA approval for a solid tumor cancer. The proposed mechanism for AMTAGVI offers a new cell therapy approach that deploys patient-specific T cells called TIL cells. When cancer is detected, the immune system creates TIL cells to locate, attack, and destroy cancer. TIL cells recognize distinctive tumor markers on the cell surface of each person’s cancer. When cancer develops and prevails, the body’s natural TIL cells can no longer perform their intended function to fight cancer.
AMTAGVI is manufactured using a proprietary process to collect and expand a patient’s unique T cells from a portion of their tumor. AMTAGVI returns billions of the patient’s T cells back to the body to fight their cancer.* Authorized Treatment Centers (ATCs) will administer AMTAGVI to patients as part of a treatment regimen that includes lymphodepletion and a short course of high-dose PROLEUKIN® (aldesleukin).
https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovances-amtagvitm-lifileucel-receives-us-fda-accelerated
File Date | Form | Investor | Prev Shares | Latest Shares | Δ Shares (Percent) | Ownership (Percent) | Δ Ownership (Percent) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-03-01 | 13G | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | 11,979,415 | 19,221,743 | 60.46 | 6.90 | 46.81 | |
2024-02-14 | 13G/A | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | 8,114,890 | 468,821 | -94.22 | 0.20 | -96.00 | |
2024-02-13 | 13G/A | VANGUARD GROUP INC | 14,463,082 | 22,812,820 | 57.73 | 8.91 | -2.73 | |
2024-02-09 | 13G/A | MHR FUND MANAGEMENT LLC | 12,083,951 | 20,083,951 | 66.20 | 7.80 | 16.42 | |
2024-01-26 | 13G/A | BlackRock Inc. | 12,076,276 | 19,071,756 | 57.93 | 7.50 | -2.60 | |
2024-01-25 | 13G/A | STATE STREET CORP | 14,715,475 | 16,424,388 | 11.61 | 6.42 | -31.12 | |
2023-10-27 | 13D/A | Quogue Capital LLC | 20,000,000 | 25,000,000 | 25.00 | 15.84 | 26.52 | |
2023-02-14 | 13G/A | Avoro Capital Advisors LLC | 8,675,000 | 7,020,000 | -19.08 | 4.40 | -20.00 | |
2023-02-06 | 13G/A | WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | 9,584,082 | 421,610 | -95.60 | 0.27 | -95.58 |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |