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Tuesday, April 22, 2025 3:36:14 PM
I agree, too, although I don't know what price they can get in the UK. Tecelra priced in the range of 500k or a bit higher. Amtagvi wholesale 515,000 per patient.
But I've heard precisely two contentions with this particular article so far, one that I put "contemporary" in quotes, and the other that I used old numbers to lay out a very very weird market size calculation that just, realistically, is not going to play out like that.
But fact of the matter is that one of the things Seeking Alpha will come back at you for is not presenting this kind of calculation, no matter the quality of information you have at your disposal.
And even if I take 3200 patients per year, at 200k, 100% penetration, that's 640 million per year, and at a P/S of 5, you're in the "few billion" market cap with the absolute best scenario you can dream up. Yeah, that's a big return from this price point, but it's not exactly burning the biotech world to the ground the way that some are claiming.
But I've heard precisely two contentions with this particular article so far, one that I put "contemporary" in quotes, and the other that I used old numbers to lay out a very very weird market size calculation that just, realistically, is not going to play out like that.
But fact of the matter is that one of the things Seeking Alpha will come back at you for is not presenting this kind of calculation, no matter the quality of information you have at your disposal.
And even if I take 3200 patients per year, at 200k, 100% penetration, that's 640 million per year, and at a P/S of 5, you're in the "few billion" market cap with the absolute best scenario you can dream up. Yeah, that's a big return from this price point, but it's not exactly burning the biotech world to the ground the way that some are claiming.
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