Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Hoskuld]

There is great upside here: between the US and EU, there will probably be, at most, 4m patients for the AD indication. If we just consider the EU, there will ultimately be a range of between 0.5m-2m patients on 2-73. At USD5,000 per year, that is $2.5b to 10b per year - outstanding. And if approved in the US then we can probably double revenue from USA. Even at the low end, without US approval, $2.5b in the EU alone would be huge - probably adds $50 per share minimum to Anavex market cap if MAA is approved.

Incredibly, schizophrenia may actually be a bigger indication - albeit with competition that does not exist in AD market. There are 3m+ schizophrenia patients in the US and another 3m in the EU and presumably all of them would be candidates under whatever the label will be.

Other markets - Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland - collectively would be roughly half the size of the region covered by the EU.