AI
| Followers | 0 |
| Posts | 148553 |
| Boards Moderated | 7 |
| Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Sunday, April 13, 2025 9:57:40 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 12, 2025
🔸 Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 28.7k, up 9.7k.
For the second time in eight weeks, equity bulls managed to close the S&P 500 in the green this week. As opposed to last week’s 9.1 percent plunge, the large cap index finished up 5.7 percent to 5363.
Before this, Monday began where last week left off, tagging 4835 intraday. By then, the S&P 500 was down 21.3 percent from the all-time high of 6147 posted on February 19th. This was also where dual support rested: a rising trendline from the Covid lows of March 2020 and the highs of December 2021 and January 2022. Bids showed up aggressively.
More strength is possible in the sessions ahead. Immediately ahead, bears are likely to show up at 5500; Wednesday, the index rallied as high as 5481 before selling off a tad.
In the event of a drawdown, bulls need to defend 5260s.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 24.3k, up 9.1k.
Until last week’s close, the Nasdaq 100 was down 21.7 percent from the February 19th all-time high of 22223. As this week got underway, no relief was in sight. Intraday Monday, the tech-heavy index was down as much as 25.6 percent from its high, as it tagged 16542.
In November 2021, the index had peaked at 16765 before unraveling to bottom at 10441 by October next year. This was an important high and offered tech bulls an opportunity to step up and defend, and they accomplished that. By the end of the week, the Nasdaq 100 closed at 18690, up 7.4 percent for the week. In the prior week, it was down 9.8 percent.
Ahead, there is horizontal resistance at 19200s. As a matter of fact, Wednesday’s massive rally was stopped right there, as the index ticked 19234 intraday, before coming under pressure. This is the one to watch for now. Success here will give the bulls a chance to go after the 50- and 200-day (20269 and 20259 respectively); the averages have just completed a death cross. Speaking of which, the S&P 500 is on the brink of completing one, with the 50- and 200-day at 5761 and 5754 respectively.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 12.7k, down 4.4k.
For nearly two years through December 2023, the Russell 2000 was rangebound between 1700 and 1900 before breaking out. The small cap index went on to post a new all-time high of 2466 on November 25th last year, which just edged past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021. Things then went the other way.
Through this Wednesday’s intraday low of 1733, the Russell 2000 tumbled 29.7 percent from last November’s high. In fact, it hit 1730s in three different sessions, and the 1700 support held. By Friday, the index was up 1.8 percent for the week to 1860.
Small-cap bulls’ immediate hurdle lies at 1900. On Wednesday, the index did touch 1931 intraday, but only to get frittered away in the last two sessions. Thus far, genuine risk-on sentiment is not evident in small-caps.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2.9k, down 4.1k.
There is multi-year horizontal support just north of 100. This week, the US dollar index sank 3.1 percent to lose this support, closing at 99.76. Dollar bulls’ only consolation is that Friday’s session closed well off the intraday low of 99.03.
It has been quite a tumble, having peaked on January 13th at a two-plus-year intraday high of 110.18. The 50- and 200-day (105.13 and 104.78 respectively) are on the verge of completing a death cross.
The daily is getting extended. Unless this week’s low gets compromised, bulls’ mettle sooner or later will be tested at lateral support at 103.20s, which was breached seven sessions ago.
VIX: Currently net short 14k, up 3.6k.
VIX opened the week with an intraday print of 60.13 on Monday. It is not often the volatility index has crossed 60. In the past, this has happened in October, November and December of 2008, March and April of 2020 and last August.
If a genuine unwinding gets underway, there is a long way to go on the downside. But it is too soon to declare that. Yes, with VIX closing the week down 7.75 points to 37.56, volatility bulls were unable to cling on to the weekly highs, but there are several layers of defendable support underneath.
For now, VIX probably heads lower. Levels to watch at this point include 28-29 and 22-23.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | April 12, 2025
🔸 Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 28.7k, up 9.7k.
For the second time in eight weeks, equity bulls managed to close the S&P 500 in the green this week. As opposed to last week’s 9.1 percent plunge, the large cap index finished up 5.7 percent to 5363.
Before this, Monday began where last week left off, tagging 4835 intraday. By then, the S&P 500 was down 21.3 percent from the all-time high of 6147 posted on February 19th. This was also where dual support rested: a rising trendline from the Covid lows of March 2020 and the highs of December 2021 and January 2022. Bids showed up aggressively.
More strength is possible in the sessions ahead. Immediately ahead, bears are likely to show up at 5500; Wednesday, the index rallied as high as 5481 before selling off a tad.
In the event of a drawdown, bulls need to defend 5260s.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 24.3k, up 9.1k.
Until last week’s close, the Nasdaq 100 was down 21.7 percent from the February 19th all-time high of 22223. As this week got underway, no relief was in sight. Intraday Monday, the tech-heavy index was down as much as 25.6 percent from its high, as it tagged 16542.
In November 2021, the index had peaked at 16765 before unraveling to bottom at 10441 by October next year. This was an important high and offered tech bulls an opportunity to step up and defend, and they accomplished that. By the end of the week, the Nasdaq 100 closed at 18690, up 7.4 percent for the week. In the prior week, it was down 9.8 percent.
Ahead, there is horizontal resistance at 19200s. As a matter of fact, Wednesday’s massive rally was stopped right there, as the index ticked 19234 intraday, before coming under pressure. This is the one to watch for now. Success here will give the bulls a chance to go after the 50- and 200-day (20269 and 20259 respectively); the averages have just completed a death cross. Speaking of which, the S&P 500 is on the brink of completing one, with the 50- and 200-day at 5761 and 5754 respectively.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 12.7k, down 4.4k.
For nearly two years through December 2023, the Russell 2000 was rangebound between 1700 and 1900 before breaking out. The small cap index went on to post a new all-time high of 2466 on November 25th last year, which just edged past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021. Things then went the other way.
Through this Wednesday’s intraday low of 1733, the Russell 2000 tumbled 29.7 percent from last November’s high. In fact, it hit 1730s in three different sessions, and the 1700 support held. By Friday, the index was up 1.8 percent for the week to 1860.
Small-cap bulls’ immediate hurdle lies at 1900. On Wednesday, the index did touch 1931 intraday, but only to get frittered away in the last two sessions. Thus far, genuine risk-on sentiment is not evident in small-caps.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2.9k, down 4.1k.
There is multi-year horizontal support just north of 100. This week, the US dollar index sank 3.1 percent to lose this support, closing at 99.76. Dollar bulls’ only consolation is that Friday’s session closed well off the intraday low of 99.03.
It has been quite a tumble, having peaked on January 13th at a two-plus-year intraday high of 110.18. The 50- and 200-day (105.13 and 104.78 respectively) are on the verge of completing a death cross.
The daily is getting extended. Unless this week’s low gets compromised, bulls’ mettle sooner or later will be tested at lateral support at 103.20s, which was breached seven sessions ago.
VIX: Currently net short 14k, up 3.6k.
VIX opened the week with an intraday print of 60.13 on Monday. It is not often the volatility index has crossed 60. In the past, this has happened in October, November and December of 2008, March and April of 2020 and last August.
If a genuine unwinding gets underway, there is a long way to go on the downside. But it is too soon to declare that. Yes, with VIX closing the week down 7.75 points to 37.56, volatility bulls were unable to cling on to the weekly highs, but there are several layers of defendable support underneath.
For now, VIX probably heads lower. Levels to watch at this point include 28-29 and 22-23.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
• DiscoverGold
Discover What Traders Are Watching
Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
