GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

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Gold Cycle Update
By: Jim Curry | April 6, 2025

For the short-term picture for Gold, as mentioned in my last article from 3/23/25, the 10 and 20-day cycles were headed lower, though a move which was anticipated to end up as countertrend - to be followed by higher highs on the next swing up.

Here is the smaller 10-day wave in the Gold market:



As mentioned, the last 10-day cycle downward phase was expected to end up as a countertrend affair, to be followed by higher highs on the next swing up - which we did see. That rally took Gold up to a high of 3201.60 for the June, 2025 contract.

Going further with the above, at the most recent peak, Gold was on the lookout for another short-term correction with our 10-day wave, which was confirmed to be in force with the reversal below the 3128.00 figure (June, 2025 contract).

With the above said and noted, the metal has seen a decline of nearly 100 points through our downside reversal point of 3128.00, an action which favors the downward phase of our larger 34-day cycle to be back in force.

Shown below is that 34-day cycle in Gold:



Going further with the above, taking out the 3031.00 figure (June, 2025 contract) to the downside will favor even more short-term weakness with this 34-day wave, which is next projected to trough around mid-to-late April.

With the above said and noted, we expect the next swing low to form with our 34-day wave in Gold, into the mid-to-late April window, before turning higher again into May - with our larger 72-day cycle, which is shown again on the chart below:



With the recent decline, there is some potential for our 72-day cycle to have topped, though this has yet to be confirmed. With that, the ideal path is looking for only a countertrend correction with the smaller 34-day cycle, before turning back to make another stab at the highs - before actually peaking this 72-day component.

Stepping back further, once the 72-day wave does top out, then the probabilities will favor a bigger percentage decline into what looks to be late-June, plus or minus.

In terms of price, the 72-day moving average should act as the magnet to the next correction phase of our 72-day wave into June, though with the potential for a larger decline to unfold, due to the extended position of our bigger 310-day cycle:



This larger 310-day cycle sets the direction for the mid-term trend in Gold prices, with the current upward phase of this wave seen as very extended. This wave was originally projected to trough this Spring, though with the detrend now projecting it to bottom out around the late-June window - which is where our next 72-day trough is also due.

For the bigger view, the next mid-term buy for Gold should come at or near the lower four-year cycle channel (in red) and/or the 310-day moving average. Having said that, a drop back to that range could come from higher highs first, such as with our 72-day wave into May - following the completion of the current short-term decline phase with the smaller 34-day component; stay tuned.

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