Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 22, 2025

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 33486 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in March is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 35000 intraday and is still trading above that high of 34240.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. Nonetheless, the market has rebound quite strong and is trading within 1% of the previous high. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 34140 and support forming below at 33045. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 17th at 35000, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 35000 to 33165. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 35000 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 29099 and 34973. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 17th reaching 35000 has exceeded the previous high of 34240 made back during the week of February 10th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 31365 reaching 31635.

Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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