Personally, Hoskuld, I might up the odds a bit on the MAA, given the general disfavor for the efficacy, safety and cost of the mAbs. However, I really want to point out that the comparison with Karuna’s drug for Schizophrenia may have twists that don’t directly compare. Karuna apparently has some unpleasant side effects, that, while not dangerous, could be off-putting. More importantly, no Schizophrenia drug has, to my knowledge, addressed cognition, which 3-71 will attempt to do.
My thought is that 3-71 will not have to surpass the PANSS scores of the Karuna drug and need only come close if it improves cognition and produces lesser side effects. So, while I think that the odds of better PANSS scores might be only 50/50, which is a reasonable, if not generous, assumption on your part, the odds of coming up with an overall better and more tolerable drug may actually be higher. I am OK with that 50% number at this point, since we know so little other than the agonists involved and the company’s comments on the genetic expression results in Part A (and the willingness to expand the participant roster), but I suspect that the overall impact of 3-71 will be significantly superior beyond PANSS based on our (admittedly modest) understanding of that drug’s presumed impact on cognition and its tolerability.
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