Kiwi, I think we are at the point where US revenues are no longer supporting international growth. With U.S. revenue at about $100M a year (annualized run-rate, based on where Q4 is likely coming in at), and cost of good sold at around $63M, that leaves us with $37M in U.S. Gross Profit Margin. Overall Operating Expenses are around $150M. Obviously, some of that is attributable to overseas operations (which they do not break out). So we are losing $75-100M a year on the U.S. operation alone.
Q3 annualized saw Amarin as a whole, losing $100M/year (run rate). Changes in A/R, Inventory, and add-backs due to stock-based comp helped minimize cash burn. But those items can't continue indefinitely (A/R and Inventory specifically). So very soon (probably starting in Q4), the cash is going to start burning quickly, assuming that revenues in Europe don't heat up exponentially (hint: they won't). We won't see anything from China, Italy, or anywhere else, other than UK, Spain, and a few of our RoW partners (Canada, etc.) contributing a few million. Revenues outside of U.S. in Q4 will likely be $5-7M more than Q3. After COGS, that leaves maybe $2-3M in Gross Profit on the incremental revenues. That's just not going to move the needle.
Bottom line, they have squeezed as much from the lemon as they are going to get on the expense side. And the only way out of this now is to grow revenues. This is probably why they have not initiated the buyback (and possibly won't - or maybe just a nominal amount as a show of faith). If they are burning $25M+ per quarter in cash, it's going to go quickly now. I am hoping the ER CC is going to be very revealing in terms of their plan.
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