The tariff announcement approaches, likely over the weekend. It was surprising to see the market up this morning, so I reduced the stock allocation again, down to 10% from 13%. So basically down to the 'Core' position, which is spread among 88 individual stocks and 4 sector ETFs (link to list below). The plan is to use these as a 10% LT Core, and have a 15% Flex in the S+P 500, so a max allowable stock allocation of 25%. The Core stays in place LT, while the Flex can be traded depending on circumstances. If we get a sizable pullback, then time to re-enter on the Flex side. If the market gets overbought and vulnerable, then the Flex is reduced. Sounds like a plan anyway.
Looks like 2025 could be another choppy year, but once things settle down on the 'Trump policy' side, the market trend should become more apparent. The tariffs are the big worry, since if Trump goes big, we have almost instant inflation, which throws the Fed's plans all to hell, and shortens the debt bomb timeline. If the high tariffs are prolonged, that increases the chance of recession. So -->. high inflation combined with recession = the dreaded Stagflation. So not the outcome anyone wants.
The tariff idea is a loser imo. The idea of restoring the US manufacturing base makes sense, but would take many years, and the US doesn't have the luxury of time. The US debt bomb will likely reach a crisis stage in ~ 3-5 years, and with the tariffs keeping % rates up, the timeline to disaster is shortened. Another aspect is that tariffs will likely chase other countries further into the arms orf BRICS, even faster than is already happening. So a double whammy, and if the tariffs also precipitate a recession, we get a triple whammy.
Hopefully Trump is merely using the tariffs as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations. But it sounds like he wants to use them to enable the long term re-industrialization of the US. Normally this would be a good idea, but there isn't enough time due to the looming debt bomb. Job #1 should be to delay the US debt bomb (cut spending), while simultaneously slowing the expansion of BRICS. Even with ideal leadership the US will be facing the grim reaper in just a few years (end of empire). With a major policy blunder (tariffs), the timeline is shortened.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
