NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[tunnelvisionofplenty]

I had a little time over the weekend to look into things a little further and found some other info that people might be interested in.

- First, I went back and took a closer look at a few of the medicines I hadn't been able to ID before. Thanks to Lykiri ID'ing Tarlatamab (I initially had it down as something else), and after I ID'd another one I hadn't been able to place before (Tabelecleucel), I have now determined that, out of 20 medicines that appeared in the CHM meeting minutes and *could* have received approval by now, 18 did receive approval. The other 2 are Avacincaptad pegol, (which appears to have been delayed by the company for some reason – possibly because it was not approved, although when drugs aren't approved I've often seen the NICE status updated to reflect that the drug was completely withdrawn from consideration so that may not be the case here) and Fexapotide Triflutate (the submitting company seems to have gone through some kind of bizarre corporate crisis recently which appears to have delayed their application in another jurisdiction, so that may have happened with the MRHA application as well). In short, of medicines that *could* have gotten a decision by now, 90% were approved and the remaining 10% are inconclusive (can't say for certain whether they were denied or are still pending). This leads me to believe that merely appearing in the CHM minutes is highly prejudicial toward approval.

- Second, I took a look at where approvals tend to fall during each month. Excluding IRP approvals (which have a different process), approval announcements broke down this way:

- First week of the month (days 1-7): 1 approval (5.56%)
- Second week of the month (days 8-14): 2 approvals (11.11%)
- Third week of the month (days 15-21): 5 approvals (27.78%)
- Fourth week of the month (days 22-28): 9 approvals (50.00%)
- End of the month (days 29-31): 1 approval (5.56%)

As you can see, the majority of approvals came after the third week of the month, while the vast majority (83.33%) came during the second half of the month.

- Third, I took a look at which day of the week approvals tended to fall (again excluding IRP):

- 1 approval came on Monday (5.56%)
- 3 approvals came on Tuesday (16.67%)
- 10 approvals came on Wednesday (55.56%)
- 2 approvals came on Thursday (11.11%)
- 2 approvals came on Friday (11.11%)

I think the results here speak for themselves.

It would be insane for me or anybody else to draw conclusions about the specific date of approval based on this information, since (as the data reflect), approvals can be announced at any time. However, I do think it's interesting to note that: (a) the vast majority of approvals come during the second half of the month; (b) Wednesdays are clearly the favored day for the MHRA to announce approvals; and (c) 90% of medicines that have appeared in the CHM minutes over the last year+ have been approved (with the status of the other 10% being unclear).