Saturday, January 11, 2025 11:07:26 AM
I mostly agree. But I suspect there will be a "we are working to create an optical engine PIC" agreement long before any kind of transceiver company licensing agreement.
The next few weeks and months will be interesting. If we don't get a PIC company announcement in the next month or so - I think that will give credence to the idea that Lightwave had to go out and find more foundries preferred by the PIC companies - and if THAT is the case it could be a long boring year which is never good for the stock price.
IF there is a PIC agreement I'm not sure that will move the stock much more than a double perhaps for a smaller company.
If it is with a well-known name we could see double digits briefly..the crowd here certainly will do it's damndest to make it sound way better than it is.
Then reality will set in as months go by without an actual PIC for a transceiver company to make samples with (months of no news there is a reasonable assumption) and therefore also without a license agreement with a transceiver company. Correct me if I"m wrong but the process to make an optical engine PIC could easily take over a year I think.
So that will be fodder for the shorts to do their thing.
I"d guess $1-4 range over the next year. If it drifts close to 1 then delisting could become a major concern. I'm thinking that probably won't happen this year though unless it is mostly crickets with no interesting announcments.
..
The next few weeks and months will be interesting. If we don't get a PIC company announcement in the next month or so - I think that will give credence to the idea that Lightwave had to go out and find more foundries preferred by the PIC companies - and if THAT is the case it could be a long boring year which is never good for the stock price.
IF there is a PIC agreement I'm not sure that will move the stock much more than a double perhaps for a smaller company.
If it is with a well-known name we could see double digits briefly..the crowd here certainly will do it's damndest to make it sound way better than it is.
Then reality will set in as months go by without an actual PIC for a transceiver company to make samples with (months of no news there is a reasonable assumption) and therefore also without a license agreement with a transceiver company. Correct me if I"m wrong but the process to make an optical engine PIC could easily take over a year I think.
So that will be fodder for the shorts to do their thing.
I"d guess $1-4 range over the next year. If it drifts close to 1 then delisting could become a major concern. I'm thinking that probably won't happen this year though unless it is mostly crickets with no interesting announcments.
..
Recent LWLG News
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