88, I don't have much time to get into it this morning, but I used a DCF model with a 12% hurdle rate, peak revenue of $500M achieved in 5 years, COGS of 30% (significantly lower than today). This generated $4.9B in total cashflow, discounted to just over $2B of DCF.
Obviously there are TONS of variables in this...the biggest being revenues. Since this was my low-end base-case, I assumed we do not re-capture the U.S. market in any meaningful way, and Europe and RoW continues building out as-is. I also did not assume any new formulations, new indications, etc.
If they cannot achieve at least $500M in WW revenues (to Amarin or a buyer), then clearly Vascepa does not have a future. So this was sort of the "scratch and claw" forecast.
I did not account for cash on hand, inventory, or tax-loss carryforward, because the cash and inventory are only dollar-for-dollar, and we don't know what that will look like at the time of buyout. And the tax-loss carryforward is of little value when you look at how they can actually use it (you can't just apply the entire tax benefit in one year, and there are some very specific rules around it). But if you wanted to add those three items in, you could probably add about $1-1.50 in stock price value. But I would err on the low end. So maybe add $1. Keep in mind there is also some cost involved in a buyout (buying out leases, layoff costs, due diligence, overhead cost of transition teams, etc.), so that may negate much of the benefit of the cash and inventory on hand in a buyout model.
Again, this is my low-end, base case. As in, the minimum I think the Vascepa product should be worth to a buyer today. And my belief is that it should only go up from there based on other opportunities (ie. new formulations, new indications, re-capture of U.S. market, greater uptake than we've experienced so far, etc.).
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