Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[JRoon71]

TCI, I think part of the issue is that financial analysts view Amarin as a "going concern". Amarin has stated over and over again that they are going it alone, with very little indication that they are trying to get bought.

So...analysts only look at what Amarin is producing, or what they think they will be producing in the near term, to place a value on it. What any future "potential" means to a buyer is irrelevant to their analysis.

They say "OK, what is the forward-looking revenue...what is the profit margin...what multiple do we place on that...".
It's not REALLY the job of a financial analyst to *speculate* on whether Amarin will get bought or not, especially when Amarin has said very, very little about their desire to be bought.

This is why the stock was bid way up back in 2019. Because everyone assumed Amarin would get bought out at a big multiple because of its "potential", just like most other pre-commercial (or very early stage, as was the case of Amarin with only the MARINE indication up to that point) biotech companies.

And since Amarin doesn't give any forward guidance at all, analysts have very little to go on. So they can only look at what revenue streams are currently in place, and what revenue they see in the next year or two. Outside of Canada, UK, and Spain, we have ZERO revenue (or near-zero), even among the countries that have been approved for years. So what are analysts suppose to glean from that?

Now, if Denner and the board want to flip the script, and start talking about the buyout potential, what the future potential is of Vascepa, what their ultimate plan is, then maybe it will change the perception of the company. But until then, analysts are just going to look at it as a dying company.

FWIW, I think Denner is being VERY deliberate about this. He is not stupid. There's a reason that the company does almost no PR (outside of what is required by the SEC).

When we start hearing a lot from Amarin, the board, Denner, etc., then you know the script is being flipped and they are ready to run.