The one thing that has bothered me since the Q3 ER is that they did not increase full year guidance. By not doing so, they specifically decreased their original Q4 implicit guidance. For Q2 ER, they said Q3 would be $53M-55M, so take midpoint of $54M. For full year, they said $160M-$165M so taking midpoint would be $162.5. Subtracting off Q1 to Q3 revenue thus gives a Q4 estimate of $76.7M ($162.5M - $0.6M - $31.2M - $54M). When they beat Q3 by $4.6M, they, in essence, decreased the Q4 estimate to $72.1M. I think The Street took this as management does not believe the growth rate will continue, thus the sell-off. I think to overcome this, IOVA needs to not only beat the original guidance of $76.7M, but beat by the $4.6M they beat in Q3. Therefore, The Street will now want to see revenues closer to $81.3M. Is this doable? Assuming another $12M IL2 stocking at the 3rd SD, that would leave $69.3M from treatment revenue. At $0.6M/infusion, that would mean about 115 infusions in Q4. That would be a tall order given only 30 thru Q3 earnings report, especially given the holiday season. I am somewhat expecting a sell-off again after Q4 for these reasons. If so, I will use that opportunity to re-load my long dated (Jan 26) options positions as the growth rate is still phenomenal out of the gate.
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