Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[TCI1]

While most of the commentary about the investor/analyst call is negative, they did give as much of an assurance as possible that we will obtain reimbursement in Italy this side of Christmas. Given the nature of investor lawsuits they wouldn’t have said this if it’s not pretty much a cert.

European sales growth was slow Q2 vs Q3, could be because a lot of Europe closes for holidays in July/August, or it could be for other reasons. They seemed pretty bullish on the European strategy & also on the Chinese strategy.

Next to nothing on a new self emulsifying pill or life cycle management but anyone who expected Amarin to divulge any potential game changing life cycle assets on a public investor call doesn’t understand how competitive advantages are disclosed - the first we’ll hear about it is when it’s too late for any competitors to derail it (assuming we do in fact have rights to a new 2 a day pill with same EPA as the current 4 a day).

The reality is the share price will be in the toilet until there is visibility that sales in Europe/ROW will offset the decline in the US - probably 2 or 3 quarters away. Thankfully we have enough cash on hand to get us through.

If that transpires & there is a positive cash flow & profitability growth forecast, there will be no shortage of potential acquirers. Look at Roche I think that wrote of a $8.7bn acquisition last week which failed phase 3 trials after only buying it a year earlier on positive phase 2. Any Pharma would like to buy an asset that is already on the market and whose future cash flow can be reasonably forecast. How much will depend on Amarins ability to achieve pricing & reimbursement and sales growth.