uk: As Elon said in the Q2 call, either you believe that Tesla will solve FSD - OR you join the billions of people who will be watching TSLA zoom to $5,000 in just a few years, wishing they had bought just a few shares! Elon also said in one of his appearances that releasing a new model without autonomy is pretty stupid. ALL THIS IS JUST IN RESPONSE TO YOUR LAST SENTENCE.
The sentence before: you talk about he obvious need.for LEVEL V autonomy. TESLA VISION obviously needs to improve or perhaps it needs some other type of sensor. ELON IS NOT TOO PROUD TO ADNIT HIS ERRORS, refer to the biography by Walter Isaacson, and go ahead and use a special purpose lidar developed by TESLA. IT will of course need to be much smaller and MUCH cheaper than the one seen in WAYMO cars. She GOOGLE is also fairly smart. it is presumably ALSO working on that.
Now ti your Points 1 and 2: Steering wheel and pedals do NOT add much to the value of a car. However, they have to be connected, and also the software has to be updated. So I'll go with a number perhaps halfway between your estimate of close to zero to about 10% of selling price. Still, the profit per cybercab will be significantly higher than the current gross margin.
For 2025, two things have a chance of happening: either Elon will be right and we'll have unsupervised FSD in California and Texas. OR WE WILL NOT. If we do, I am confused by your statement that robos are model y with driver. I am not sure why you need a driver if unsupervised FSD is approved. If Elon is wrong, in spite of his efforts to get Trump elected, then I may agree with you. However, I would think the regulatory agencies will have to say publicly where Tesla came up short, giving Tesla engineers specifics about what is required. So the end result is ANOTHER missed deadline by the TESLA CEO.
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