With the possible exception of Provenge, in my opinion DCVax-L is unlike any other product that's being marketed in the oncology market. Why? Because it's truly personalized, each batch must be independently made, stored cryogenically, distributed as needed for immediate use. I frankly don't know if using the EDEN all patients will end up with precisely the same number of doses, or if it will vary based on the amount of lysate that can be extracted on surgery.
With the complexities associated with each batch of vaccine I would think that initially a substantial figure would be charged to make the vaccine and pay for it's first application. After that, each subsequent dose would have a fixed additional cost. Clearly the longer patients lived the more they'd pay until all their vaccine had been expended.
I don't know what the dollar cost up front, or for each follow-up dose will be, but I believe that cost will have far more to do with the developmental costs than whether it's made manually or with the EDEN.
As for the market cap, I believe that while in time sales and earnings will determine the market cap, however initially I believe the potential of the way the vaccine is seen will play a big part. If this is truly seen as a new paradigm in potentially the treatment of many solid cancers and media coverage is very positive about its worldwide adoption once sufficient supply can be available based on approval of the EDEN Unit, then a multi-billion dollar market cap could be sustainable.
On the other hand, if what's said is that the vaccine has now been approved in the UK only for GBM or brain cancers, if it further states that approvals elsewhere is dependent on the approval of the EDEN unit for full commercial production capability, and that may be some time, then a market cap of a couple billion now, and substantial further growth as more is proven about the potential of the vaccine, as well as the approval of the EDEN is far more likely.
Ultimately the future would be essentially the same. With trials demonstrating that benefits can be seen in multiple solid cancers and the adoption of the EDEN, the future earnings should grow to virtually tens to hundreds of billions. If the company is not acquired, no telling just how great the market cap will be. Either or both of the DCVax's have the potential of being used in the treatment of virtually millions of cancer patients annually, it may take a decade or more to happen, but as long as the benefits are there, the earnings will be there as well.
Gary
Bullish
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