Triple, with the natural reduction and revenue we have been seeing in the U.S., plus the additional future reduction due to the CVS debacle, and if we use Canada and UK as a proxy for EU growth, it will likely take 2-3 years to ramp up to cashflow neutral.
Part of my reasoning is that they really have no more costs they can cut. They have been cutting costs aggressively as revenues have been dropping proportionally. But with costs cut about as far as they can (keep in mind, costs will ramp UP in the EU to roll out the new countries), we no longer have that lever to pull.
It's also confusing as to why we have approvals and reimbursement in place in all of these countries across Europe and RoW, but zero revenue flowing in from them. We have TEN countries approved in Europe, and EIGHT countries approved in RoW (maybe more, this was just my count). If they can actually start seeing some revenue in all of these countries, then maybe the cumulative income could help, but there's no indication that we are going to see anything soon.
On the plus side, some of the milestone payments will continue to help our cash position.
And as far as the EU, even if we get approvals in Italy and France, it's likely going to be a few years before we see any material cashflow there (see Canada and UK trajectories).
China remains an enigma. That volume could eventually help lower API costs, but even that is likely a few years away.
All told, I think the next few years are still going to be a struggle. I'm not sure if Sarissa wants to sell the company once all approvals in EU are in place, or if they are going to continue to GIA and have some other plan in place. It's also possible they are going to come out of left field with something that we aren't expecting...sell off the IP...do a merger...go private (unlikely)...just sell licensing rights and collect cashflow....etc.
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