NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

Dstock, Agree every big investor in NWBO has their own internal value assessment, on a look forward basis.

Even me, as a retail small investor, I have mine. Of course, all are my personal opinions.

Short term: asymmetric risk-reward opportunity
Binary event: MHRA decision for DCVax-L

Probability: 99% approval, 1% refusal

Stock price scenario (within 3 months post-decision):
- Approval means price goes up 1,000% to 5,000% (from $0.40/sh to the $4-$20 range) (approval will create a domino effect of cascading positive events, all will add to positive momentum for stock price, including potential for a major short squeeze, but there is much range in possibility there over such a short period)
- Refusal means price goes down 50%

Asymmetric investment: A $10K investment today has a 99% upside chance of becoming $100K - $500K and a 1% downside chance of becoming $5K within 3 mos post-MHRA decision.


Long term: unicorn company revenues and growth
DCVax’s non-toxic profile makes it applicable to the larger benign cancer market, as a prophylactic vaccine to prevent it from getting worse or from metastasizing.
- My understanding is today’s cancer drugs are typically limited to treating malignant tumors only. Their toxicity profile is the primary reason for a narrow drug labeling. It is this same reason that, for benign tumors, doctors will often choose less toxic treatments like surgery, radiation, and or monitoring (wait-and-see) first.
- But with DCVax that can all change.
- In terms of revenue potential and market size, patients with benign is a much larger group than malignant.
- For example: There are 94K newly diagnosed brain tumors in the USA per year. Of that, 26K are malignant and 68K benign. Benign is 2.6X larger than malignant. But that’s not all. There is an additional 1M people in the USA living with brain tumors (which is benign by definition, another 38X equivalent). That is just one example.
https://braintumor.org/brain-tumors/about-brain-tumors/brain-tumor-facts/

The world of business is now a "winner takes most" of the revenues
- DCVax not only is a cancer killing therapy, it also develops immune memory against recurrence and metastases.
- Because other drugs do not, I can only imagine that most, if not all, cancer patients will want to use DCVax.
- No downside. The DCVax tech platform is unique in that it can be combined with other drugs, like a modular therapy model (DCVax as the base layer, adjuvants and other cancer drugs are added on top of it).