Predictions I made on on Feb 9:
The next 3-4 months will be shocking imo.
I'm 90% confident that many of the following will happen, or should I say NOT happen:
1. Re Dec 4 letter - there will be no announcement of a tech transfer with a foundry, but may be some LOI that sounds good but has no clear timeline.
2. Early March the 10k comes out which shows at best the $50,000 in revenues from the one-off modulators using Perk agreement. That will confirm the very low demand after 9 months, which brings into question how straightforward the company was in claiming "commercial acceptance" last year.
3. OFC will come and go without any external validation that Lightwave's polymer reliability has been proven. Andy will not confirm it, and Lightwave will not make any definitive statement that satisfies the industry.
4. OFC will come and go without an announcement of a transceiver using Lightwave's modulator breakthrough. The transceiver company isn't ready to take that step. There may be some kind of half-prototype or "this is how it will work" display.
5. April will be a long month as the cumulative effect of #1-4 sinks in with shareholders and the best they hope for is a repeat of another agreement like last year. Investors will start to demand accountability with regard to Foundry work. Some long timers will become LIVID as the price drops into the 2s. Institutional selling will become a major threat..
6. April-May: shareholders may get an announcement from a small forward-looking photonics oriented foundry of some kind of partnership with Lightwave, but it will be very vague in details.
7. May: There may be confirmation that GFS is testing the perkamine/Ayar combination, but without any timeline for going into production. This may happen at ASM. ASM will be a repeat of last year -same projections for the year.
8. June: Investors will try hard to keep a happy face through all of the above, but the market likely will reflect the realization that last year shareholders were given a lump of coal instead of a gold nugget. They will start to ask what the people in the new space are doing.
9. August: Investors will anxiously await a transceiver prototype announcement that doesn't come. KCC will become "worried" but won't say so.
10. Dec 31, 2024. Investors will claim 7900 transceivers have been shipped out with Lightwave Perk since Dr Lebby said it would happen, but none of them will really believe it. The stock will hit a 52 week low despite the fact that Jim Marcelli resigned during the year.
AI
