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Alias Born | 04/22/2010 |
Sunday, May 12, 2024 5:00:12 PM
The FACT is that Lebby RIGHT NOW has the 200gbs LWLG modulator ready for mass production of 200mm Wafers being implemented at SEVERAL LARGE FOUNDRIES, and Lebby post-OFC meetings in Belgium declared NO ISSUES left to solve!!! here,
Spekkie said, When I asked whether the products were ready and if any issues were outstanding, he clearly said that everything was ready (stability, scaling etc) and the time line was fully intact and there were no changes to that. Tier 1’s are very interested and the number of them significantly increased after OFC demo’s.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174302051
The FACT is that the DEMONSTRATIONS of this device at OFC were so over-the-top successful that the Tier 1's are fighting now for Lebby/LWLG's time, for their Engineers to be working with LWLG Engineers!!! In fact, the response to the OFC demos has been so overwhelming that Lebby claims the Tier 1's "being PULLED along" has become more like "being dragged along" (a good problem to have!!!)
Spekkie posted this
, Important take away we are working with multiple tier ones, tripled since a few weeks after OFC , wow we are golden
Oh and BTW, teddybear has practically ZERO understanding of the things he posts here, it is like he is throwing spaghetti up against the wall to see if it sticks!!! Too funny!! KCC already shot down teddybear's newest lame arguments, here
1) That is the correct image from the Google shout out. Zwickel was the reference. The date was 2020 but I think it was just a continuation of the 2018 paper you posted. It’s a slot modulator structure so of course LWLGs pictures and these pictures are going to look the same.
2) LWLG owns the IP for the technology in the 5k hour paper. You gotta peel the onion back on these types of stats to see what may or may not be significant. There’s material only tests, tests on devices, tests on packaged devices. LWLG’s data today is packaged devices that are quasi-hermetically sealed using the ALD and do not require a gold box package for that hermetic seal. Leaps and bounds ahead of that paper.
3) 100% poling efficiency there isn’t what you think it means. There, it means the material r33 stayed the same when they put it into a device. Generally there’s a reduction in r33 “in-device”.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174402284
The important thing for investors to focus on is that Lebby is still on-track with his long-standing Timeline to Customer Acceptance and Ramp at 800gbs in 2024!!!!
Lebby has not backed down from his stated SAM/SOM goals and in Belgium discussions my understanding he said these are likely to be increased now!! The SAM/SOM goals match EXACTLY to Lebby's long-standing Timeline for a Customer Acceptance and Ramp in 2024!!
Lebby provided SAM/SOM GOALS at ASM for 2024 to 2030
I built a detailed financial model using the SOM/SAM information for 800G and 1.6T pluggable transceivers and it shows a $5-10 billion market cap by 2028 using the "base case" SOM estimates.
It's not perfect, but probably the most precise model anyone has put together so far. A big unknown is the COGS and OPEX, but using 80-85% gross margin (like OLED) and knowing LWLG estimates around 50 employees at mass commercialization...it's probably close. My revenue estimates also center around the value of the modulators, and not necessarily revenue had in technology transfer agreements. I'm not sure how those agreements would be priced and if LWLG would offer a discount so to speak since someone else it spending the money in manufacturing.
This is all just for one application and there are endless applications for super small, fast and efficient modulators. Hell, I even found a white paper using a MZM-based sensors used as a "nose" for fermenting coffee and finding the most precise time to stop the fermenting process.
Now - IMO, the company will be bought out well before we ever hit $1 billion in revenue. That's fine with me. OLED hit $10-15B market cap with around $500 million in revenue.
-KCC
https://www.reddit.com/r/LWLG/comments/15f4un7/daily_trading_action_and_general_discussion/?
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