Wednesday, April 10, 2024 11:24:47 AM
I also felt Lebby seemed to downplay the tech transfer sales prong. My interpretation comes from more than yesterday’s presentation. They have always said their go to market strategy needed to be flexible. As they gained more experience negotiating agreements, the differences between a licensing agreement and a technology transfer agreement became blurred. They are essentially the same when referring to foundries whether independent or vertical.
Another thought I had was the comment about the PULL feeling more like they were being dragged along by the data centers. If they are being dragged or pulled, then the holdup in signing agreements should be caused by LW insisting on better terms. Then, there have been the comments by Lebby that reliability remains on the table meaning that more thorough test data is the holdup. That implies the data centers are the holdup.
My conclusion is that the data centers are pressuring Lightwave to speed up the reliability data sets so they can get going updating their data centers. Lebby said something to the effect that “you take out the existing transceiver and plug in a new one with a V8 engine.” He has said this on a number of occasions. Sounds like the upgrade would take a few days once the transceivers have been delivered to the data center. Producing a few million transceivers takes at least six months. I understand the urgency today because the data centers won’t start receiving the benefits of the upgrade until 2025 if the data sets were completed today.
I am looking forward to the ASM to get any updated unit volume guidance.
Recent LWLG News
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