Fred indicated that they would provide a patient start/slots reserved number during the next earnings call. Assuming they report at the beginning of May, so the numbers would be thru end of April (75 days), how many patient enrollments does everyone predict? They had 20 in the first 10 days. My projection (pure guess) is 185 which is 15/week (or roughly 1/ATC every other week). Since there is a 34 day lag and the average price is about 500k (adjusted for Proleukin and Medicare/Medicaid payer mix), this would lead to Q2 revenue of about $92M. For comparison, analysts have an average Q2 revenue of 27.5M (or 55 patients) with a high of $60M (or 120 patients). This is why I am playing for an upside surprise on Q1, Q2 and Q3 ERs as I think the street is way behind the curve (and I think my numbers may be conservative). Thoughts and predictions?
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