Tornado Alley (PROG)

[janice shell]

The 70 percent figure was always what you wanted to believe...

The 70 percent, as I recall, represents those who think Biden is too old. I'm part of that group. Biden has a lot more energy than I do; for that matter, he has more energy than I had 20 years ago. He's not showing any signs of mental decline. But over 70, all bets are off. Sooner or later, you'll suffer some kind of health crisis.

Independents would be part of that 70 percent. They probably think Trumpty, who'll be 78 this June, is also too old.

Trump's own followers don't, but then probably half of them believe he's immortal. They are a cult, and cannot be expected to think rationally.

Biden is the logical Dem nominee. First, he's done a good job; that's important. And incumbency is always an advantage. As several here have pointed out, incumbent presidents aren't often successfully challenged at the national level. Hasn't happened in a presidential race since 1968, when LBJ was catching hell for our involvement in the Vietnam war. That February, Eugene McCarthy campaigned against him, and came in a strong second. That prompted RFK to enter the race, and at the end of March, LBJ withdrew.

Nothing like it has happened since. Did Republicans feel Reagan was too old for a second term? They didn't, even though he showed signs of mental decline in his first debate with Mondale, rambling on incomprehensibly at the end. He was a mere 73 at the time.

Of course, people now know that Reagan did suffer from dementia, though it wasn't diagnosed until five years after he left office, and so are perhaps more aware that it's a real possibility.

Biden will probably have the easiest victory over Trump. We don't really have many other candidates who're nationally recognized, except for Kamala Harris, and Biden hasn't, I think, given her the kind of role she needs to become his obvious successor. Others will be coming to the fore in 2028, when Trump will be either dead or so obviously unfit even most of his culties will desert him.

Here, by the way, is the story of Gene McCarthy's run against LBJ. Nostalgic for people of the right age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_McCarthy_1968_presidential_campaign