Bigworld, Here's a variation on the strategy outlined in the previous post (ie 'pre-event runup period' or PERP). I remember back in the day, an approach that many used was to have a core buy/hold position, plus a trading position. Using only PERP, the risk is a lot less, but so is the potential upside. So supplementing PERP with an additional buy/hold component is another way to go.
I figure Ibez has a good chance of ultimately being successful and reaching the market, but the ride could be very bumpy. The near term scenario I worry about most would be a repeat of the big Nov 2 drop. This time, the first durability data readout (Event 1) looks inconclusive or outright poor, so the stock gets clobbered, but then has a big run up once the Event 2 and 3 data comes out.
In this case, using PERP for Event 1 produces a modest profit, and you sidestep the big drop from the Event 1 perceived failure. Then you have a perfect re-entry point to reload ahead of Event 2 and 3, which should have a much higher likelihood of success.
Anyway, there are numerous variations, so we'll see what happens. With biotech I learned to be extremely cautious, since the odds of an early stage drug ultimately reaching the market are very slim. It's fun to develop strategies, etc, but as Buffett says, Rule #1 is -- Don't lose money :o)
---
AI
Market Data 
Markets 
