Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> Acurx <<

I pick up some too, though only 100 shares so far. I had 1000 shares a while back, but luckily took profits before the recent drop. Only made $520, but holding it would have ended up as a sizable loss, so dodged a bullet. This time my position limit will be $1000, so figure ~ 300 shares.

One thing that worries me is that the upcoming durability and microbiome calculations will (I think) need to include the 1 patient who failed in the Ibez group. So that will make the comparison with the Vanc group more difficult. What they may have to do is to report two sets of comparisons -- one with all the patients, and another with just the 'responders', which removes the one treatment failure. Who knows, but that single treatment failure has me spooked, along with the fact that the Vanc group had 100% efficacy.

With such a small trial, it's tough to get a true read on the drug. Who would have thought that the Vanc group would be 100%? The upcoming durability results for Ibex may turn out to be excellent, but the Vanc results might also be surprisingly good (again). To get a pharma deal or MA without having to run the phase 3 first, these Phase 3 durability and microbiome results need to be clear and unambiguous, otherwise the pharmas aren't going to make sufficiently favorable offers. But here's hoping the data looks good.

With biotech, it's always a roll of the dice. I've seen many clinical trial failures where the drug performed well, but the control arm also performed surprisingly well, and made the comparison non-statistically significant, and thus the trial fails. This tiny Ibez Phase 2b isn't powered to show statistical significance, but it still needs to show a clear separation between Ibez and Vanc. If even one Ibez patient relapses, while none or one Vanc patients do, then the trial will not likely produce a pharma deal or MA.

I have more faith in 94 day data and the microbiome data showing a clear separation between Ibez and Vanc. But that data will come later, after the first batch of sustained data in Dec. The first batch may not show much difference between Ibez and Vanc, so the stock tanks. Then later in Jan/Feb when the longer term data arrives and looks good, the stock takes off.

Who knows, but should be interesting. I'm only going to risk a max of $1000 though, no sense slipping back into the bio casino. It's interesting and fun (sometimes), but needs to be kept squarely in the realm of 'hobby', with a strict position limit, imo.




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