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Re: tedpeele post# 159449

Monday, 09/25/2023 10:30:03 AM

Monday, September 25, 2023 10:30:03 AM

Post# of 234103
The pluggables market already exists and has existed for some time based on 'standard' silicon photonic technologies.

Slide 21 appears to be the whole market (TAM) except telecom applications.

I recall the SOM on page 23 was explicitly explained as being pluggable modules.

I think the SOM figures are based on reality because they start small in 2024 and the ramp should be achievable thereafter as the manufacturing partners and ecosystem scale up. 20% market share of modulators for 800G pluggables and 33% market share for 1.6T pluggables by 2030. The rest is comprised of InP, TFLN, SiPh, and probably BTO. Seems reasonable considering the performance advantages of EOP versus the rest is crystal clear right now. WHEN they can manufacture at scale, it should also be the lowest cost option. So....best performing, lowest cost, lowest energy consumption...maybe 20/33% market share is low. Lebby did in fact say they believe they can obtain more of the market as the foundries "do a good job scaling" or something like that.
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