If NG falls, then $KOLD will go back up again...but as you said you aren't ready to get in either one until there's a level at which the indicators show it's tradeworthy one way or the other...
If we do pull back from here, the $2.50 level could be an area of support, and I do think that the $2.00 level will continue to be a massive support. With this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see buyers come back into the market if we get anywhere near that level. In fact, I do believe that we are going to continue to see a bit of position-building for the longer-term move later this year. After all, the Europeans are going to have to refill their natural gas storage tanks for the winter, and it’s only a matter of time before they come knocking on the door of Louisiana to start buying liquefied natural gas from the United States. On that accident, I am more than willing to step in and start buying natural gas, perhaps through an ETF so that I can avoid the massive problems with leverage, but I do think that this is going to be a good investment given enough time.