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No big market reaction to Biden dropping out.
Thanks > I'd like to see the time print of actual execution >
I will find out, I have an order in for 10 shares using EXT 13h.
Yes I think it has been changing over the last month or so. I have been surprised which is why I wrote my post yday.
that must be a fairly new addition >
D > the BTC chart >
you probably want to use on Tos Web is > /MBTN24
something like a 1 week 5 min or whatever
Futs open Sunday @ 6PM est
D > this is probably the best one>
you would have to go in and mess with things to get what you want >
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ol9MGkfP/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD
I like the coin desk chart.
D > in my view here are your choices >
Unless something has changed (which I doubt) you can put in a trade (extended hours and premarket)
But what you have is the (market maker shuffle) from 4AM to 7 AM >
Any trade you placed earlier will be in the Que somehow / somewhere but will not execute until 7AM
1. BTC is a 24/7 operation as we know > use something like this to track >
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/
2. On Tos desk or web use this > /BTC > bitcoin futures chart against IBIT >
As you can see that will give you the (whole view in time)
3 . On Tos desk or web this is IBIT with the same 2d 6m settings
4. On Tos WEB here is /BTC in a 3d 5m chart > (limited settings)
I try to toggle back and forth between BITU and SBIT, and I too have found inefficiencies due to Bitcoin trading 24/7, and the Bitcoin ETF's only trade during market hours. I don't fret much over this as trading these ETF's, even with these inefficiencies, is something I prefer over trading actual bitcoin on CoinBase or similar.
FYI trading Bitcoin miner stocks have similar inefficiencies, but I find the miner charts are less directly corelated with actual Bitcoin, giving me a bit more success charting these. GLTY
I noticed last week that for Bitcoin 60min chart it shows data 24hours a day, but I just noticed this morning that it and also the daily chart show 7 days a week. This presents a whole new issue to trading Bitcoin since I trade IBIT and I have no way to trade it when the market is closed. I just put in an order for a few shares of IBIT with "EXT 13h" and it would not execute. I expect it will Monday at 4am, we will see.
I had exited IBIT back on Jun 11th and had been watching it bottom out over the last several days for a reentry. I saw a nice channel form on the 60min chart, so I just went to IBIT chart to look for an actual signal. If you remember I used the gap open on the 11th to discuss my 10:06 rules.
Not realizing what was going on over the weekend with my Bitcoin charts, I saw the gap open on the 15th on IBIT and went long at the open. I did not want to get long until I saw some real price movement. Also I didn't want to wait until EOD because often a big gap up like this is followed by more up.
So this morning I wanted to update my daily chart, I marked it up and saw that the signal was on the 13th Sat. What the heck and of course that is when I realized the Bitcoin data was 7 days a week. The trading market opened at 4AM Monday and by then the big move was already there. But I also have a reset of -6.5% from my former exit.
So I lost about 2% by not being able to trade on Sat, but I got in and am now up 7.3% and the daily Bitcoin chart looks like it has more upside. Time will tell.
With 3 weeks of July gone, each one has been a very different market scenario.
WK1 was the final week of the surge with SPY gaining almost 2% and QQQ 3.6%. Since I am trading about 50/50 I track that number as a reference. I beat it.
WK2 was the turning week. SPY still managed to gain 1% but QQQ dropped -.3%, so it got an early head start.
WK3 then saw the market really start to drop. SPY dropped -2% and QQQ -4%.
ATH's were made for SPY on 7/16 and QQQ was earlier on 7/10.
So what happens next. In 2023, July also saw ATH's set. For QQQ it was 7/19/23 a little later in the month. And then for the next 3 months QQQ worked it's way down to a -10.8% drop with a bottom on 10/26/23. And we all know what has happened since then, an amazing Nov, Dec and 1Q24.
No particular reason to think 2024 will repeat 2023 except that late summer months are usually the weakest. I kinda expect weakness, but I am ready to jump back in the market whenever my signals appear. What I might expect or hope to happen pay no role in my decision making.
NG
9K Tick:
Heavy pro action = white candles
Exhaustion selling = yellow dot @ bottom
Bullish divergence = green dot @ bottom
Noted price action marked with timestamped lines
Pros triggered exhaustion selling 7/15 then bullish divergence in their $2 defense 7/17
$2.134 7/18 pro high recapture & build is a big face ripper oversold technical bounce threat
SPY Daily:
Heavy pockets of retail long chasing = yellow candles with "R" above
Trap door threats = lows of yellow candles with "R" above
Noted price action marked with timestamped lines
Retail chasing aths since 5/15
8 trap doors activated this week
Yesterday SPY narrowly avoided the ninth, the $548.65 7/3 low
Another big trap door threat looms underneath, the $524.72 5/23 low
Yup, your chart makes it easy to see when the toilet flushed.
NQ > I was up late >
messing around with Tos desk vs Tos web doing some Futs SIM trading on Web
then this happened > for hours /ES was flat lined =+/- 3 off the vwap > 02:48ish > "Alright what's going on" >
looking back I assume that was the start of the CRDW MSFT fails becoming evident > Below is /NQ
it's all over but the lawyers piling on >
Work desk > Crap what is going ON > quick call IT "Now" >
IT guy wakes up > OK what is it Now ? > flips on screens >
CrowdStrike CEO hurt in the pocket book. He's motivated to get the fix in quickly.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/crowdstrike-ceo-george-kurtz-is-taking-a-32-million-personal-hit-from-stock-s-drop/ar-BB1qhRho?ocid=BingNewsVerp
I saw one of the CNBC talking heads this afternoon report CrowdStrike quickly identified the software programming error, made the correction, tested it internally, and is now rolling it out to some high profile users/customers today with success.
...so I grabbed some OTM options.
My guess is over the weekend all users/customers will receive the corrected software, and come Monday most/all will be well again.
If this comes to pass, I'm betting the stock price will bounce back next week. GLTY
NQ > I was reading about that last night >
https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-windows-outage-crowdstrike-global-it-probems/
Crowd Got Struck
Interesting analysis. Thx for sharing.
I strive for repeatable simplicity over higher risk optimization. I like your conclusion. GLTY
As I have talked about several times on this board, I have been pursuing a strategy of buying individual FNGU stocks. My intention was to stop buying FNGU and just buy the stocks.
So after a lot of work, I now have a very good database going back to Oct 23 with all the trades for each stock.
This morning, I thought it was a time to see what the results would have been had I been actually trading. I was buying at the rate of 2% which means I could have gotten up to a high of 20% investment.
After I went through all the trades, the final result said that I would have made a 50.1% profit based on max investment. That is outstanding and I thought I was on to something.
So to have a comparison, I wanted to look at my official FNGU trades for the same time. To my surprise the result was 59.7%. Holy Cow !!!
I honestly am shocked at this result because I would have never thought this was going to be the case in a million years. I don't know why since after a long process a couple of years ago, I found the same thing to be true for trading the subsectors of S&P vs just SPY. Well duh !!
So as of today, I will stop all my trading of individual FNGU stocks and just concentrate on “My Big 3”, SPXL TQQQ FNGU. This is going to make my life so much simpler. I was scrambling every day last week with only 5 stock holdings that I had. I can’t imagine the nightmare if I had owned 8 or 9.
$UVXY.....10 2Ds .... Daily Trend HH
https://schrts.co/TMjhHsKR
I sold almost everything Y AM and flip short on two pos. SQQQ
Still have one SPXL so net of 36% leverage short.
BOIL almost a buy Y EOD
If we trade below Y LOD then sell last of the SPXL
Love the video. Yup, banking the sprinkles with swing trades, and an occasional cherry with OTM calls, is what I work to achieve.
Once we get past the turbulence of OpEx today, I'm thinking next week should reveal directions that are swing tradable.
The fate of SPY and Nasdaq is becoming clear on the weekly charts. Both are topping and weakening.
FNGD is presenting entry signals for a swing trade on the daily charts. Waiting to get past today for confirmation though. GLTY
thanx...I was thinking low of year...
Sorry for the shortcut. LOY=low of yesterday. Could have used YL for yesterday low.
what does Stops at LOY mean???
Fully in cash, stops at LOY.
Lots of articles about the AI bubble busting. I bet all these companies that want new data/AI centers are going to have a hard time finding anyone will support them. Nobody has any extra to sell.
Years ago, Google put in a huge data center just outside of Pryor OK. They were less than 16 miles from Grand Lake and made a sweet deal for cheap power. Those days are gone. The value of the data farm doubled the value of property in Mayes County. My daughter's partner firm had the electrical contract, and she ran the project. She had over 300 electricians working there for months and they just keep adding more and more.
https://www.google.com/about/datacenters/locations/mayes-county/
Side note: I had a lake house on the lake with a view of the dam for several years. My boat dock was 60 feet down, 30 feet from the cliff and the water was 90 feet deep. The water shed came out of Kansas, so the water was very clean. The rest of the lakes in OK are supplied by the Arkansas river coming from Colorado, but by the time it flows through the red dirt of OK, anything that went into the lake came out stained forever.
$SVXY....UVXY.....15....((.SVXY. Today ..Daily trend HH...FILL GAP NEXT...???
SVXY...
https://schrts.co/JicAdPIu
UVXY 15..
https://schrts.co/qZYMmuMt
Good to know about the Freeport situation.
Watching and waiting for next BOIL signal
look at NGQ24 >
futures roll figures
Chart lows change switching 1yr - 2yr ... https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGU24/interactive-chart
Why is that???
still would have been a nice play...in and out LCID will pop once in awhile then go back down...I shoulda gone all in...
This came out today...but those that knew about this last week may have shorted #natgas on Friday and continued the trend...https://worldoil.com/news/2024/7/17/freeport-lng-to-restart-gas-production-following-hurricane-beryl-damage-in-texas/ Found this on X I find very useful info there...of course $BOIL is sinking but hopefully this week there will be buying pressure and next week Sept NG will be back up to 2.33 and beyond...I always follow the month used for the ETFs...
Supposedly lot of sector rotation going on, at some point the buy the tech dippers will appear.
D > I'll keep picking at it >
Quite a few things in it that need fixing / altered >
I've already started a list to submit to the Dev team on possible tweaks
Overall they did a good job on it and the consequences of botching it
prior / thru the transition was very high > so there were limitations
Even thru some of those videos posted there have been some changes since >
It will take time but I think "unlike my Edge experience" this team will follow thru
and listen to what the users submit for improvement and changes.
Lookng at NG futures, the front month future /NG low is $1.52 this year and could happen again, BOIL is based on Sep not Aug so amt is higher but it will become the front month next week I think until it rolls over 2nd week in Aug. even so, only 4c difference between the two contracts.
Production is up nearly 10% over last year and so far the summer burn not doing much to lower storage.
RE-$UVXY......15..... 30...60......Daily........looking for daily trend HH...
above 22.06,,
15.
https://schrts.co/GuIFyRIr
30.
https://schrts.co/vdJfsKuh
60.
https://schrts.co/JMwqUNMW
daily.
https://schrts.co/MmmYBVbm
$KBWR......Daily......
https://schrts.co/WiMcGBHP
Geopolitical concerns rising its ugly head. insert-text-here
Be interesting to see what you might find.
Block pop-up ads http://www.adfender.com/
Dividends http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/dividend-history
Three X ETF's http://www.3xetf.com/ETF_List
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