Cycle Trading

[spdpro]

captain Ewave Robert R. Prechter

[Duma]

No not really, was he one of the past major posters that turned professional with a web site and all?

[spdpro]

remember this guy ? >
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2012/11/13/yduxu00a.jpg

[Duma]

I have made it very clear that I can only count 3 or 5 waves after the full wave is very much over. But the beginning of w3 is pretty easy to spot.

* Look for a new low
* Look for a pb of at least 50% from the first wave up.
* Get long - the closer one can enter to w2 bottom, the less the potential for loss using the recent low as a stop. I am pretty much only trading EOD so my entry was not all that good, but good enough.

[No-Quarter]

Well played! I am not skilled enough in identifying waves to be confident like you.

I still have much to learn. GLTY

[spdpro]

no changes here > Very solid day

[Duma]

We had a very delayed start to w3 probable due to Triple Witching Friday. With the new thoughts about tariffs, w3 has kicked in with a bang this morning. As is so common, w3 conformation usually does start off with a gap opening as it did once more.

I have been fully long since the open last Monday but I put all my shares into SPXL and none into TQQQ. Will start to shift shares into TQQQ this week. Last week SPY was up .5% and QQQ only .2%.

However, enjoy this move while it lasts. When this cycle tops, the weekly charts suggest we could be in for a big pb as the top in Feb was a w5 top from all that I can see.

[jaws57]

I got stopped out but got back in Y at the close. Im still in OILU and bgt some spxl at the close

[spdpro]

no changes here > same holdings > Have a good weekend

[jaws57]

thx

[haha11]

$LABD........DLY..

https://schrts.co/aadByUQg

[Duma]

Should see the following dates for upcoming dividends

03/21/25 SPY
03/24/25 SPXL
03/24/25 QQQ
03/26/25 TQQQ

[haha11]

SVIX.....UVIX...30......

$SVIX...30..
https://schrts.co/FTMWyTZX
$UVIX....30..
https://schrts.co/depEmnbh

[haha11]

R...21.54 13.40 PM....UPDATE $SVIX.....10.......21.45...H..Line...R...21.54,,

https://schrts.co/DNGqvJde

[haha11]

UPDATE $UVIX......10......33.40 ...35.40 ABOUT + 6%

https://schrts.co/dzaxVqTk

[haha11]

$UVIX............33.40
...TEST

[spdpro]

no changes here > solid day
was going to play with some loads but missed my marks and reverted back to sit on hands
vix opex Done / fomc Done / now 3 witch time >
play it as it comes available

[haha11]

$TNA.......30...+ DLY...

30.....
https://schrts.co/ViPPYJrz
DLY... R...32.36
https://schrts.co/TZPNEPUA

[jaws57]

Im still in, I do have stop at the LOD on the entry/signal bar <18.83.
there are several indicators involved. Need M12.26.1 sig line to turn down or two down days on 3MA
Actually I got distracted on the market with a project Im working on. Doesnt matter I got the stop to protect me.
insert-text-here

[No-Quarter]

I bailed out of KOLD this morning for a slight loss.

Histogram topping is my sell signal.

I will wait for another entry signal to present itself. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p10561347138

[jaws57]

Bit of a dip this morning, but we got some of that back in the afternoon.

[haha11]

$SVIX.......30....+....DLY LL....3/18/25.

GAP BTW....3/13/14 Needed to FILL..???? OPINION

30......
https://schrts.co/YdKdGjRS
DLY.........
https://schrts.co/hYUMJzYM

[No-Quarter]

I'm thinking KOLD will start moving up soon due to the weather outlooks.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p10561347138




https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif




https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif




BOIL/KOLD currently holds Apr and Jun futures contracts. GLTY

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTFFdIgMEQGK67GnE99yGOz2Fno_QkuIIk3_zCtJu_N__8er-WvPGUoUIj_zgGrP-sPmXSYlALWudah/pubchart?oid=616513212&format=image




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTFFdIgMEQGK67GnE99yGOz2Fno_QkuIIk3_zCtJu_N__8er-WvPGUoUIj_zgGrP-sPmXSYlALWudah/pubchart?oid=1050626085&format=image

[haha11]

$VIX....15......3 Ds DLY LL.....

15.......DLY LL...
https://schrts.co/kNzjPfSw
DLY....15 Ds
https://schrts.co/IZuwTtRp

[No-Quarter]

Excellent for you! You seem to do well with that trade.

[No-Quarter]

Thank you for the information. I will consider all this.

[spdpro]

looks good

[spdpro]

my svix pos is now paying well >
now just sit and wait time (might play it somewhat +/- 500 loads)
thru vix OpEx / thru FOMC with dog and pony show / thru 3 witch OpEx
and possibly hold into Apr 17 / 25 based on current options implied moves of 3.782 / 4.394

looking for VIX to drop to 18.50 area Or lower

[haha11]

$TNA.......30.......30.11.....R1=31.45.....

ABV MA20G Dot line MA50R Dot line GAP Still OPEN down not FILLED

https://schrts.co/ViPPYJrz

[jaws57]

What we need to be on guard is the SPY 200ma is widely followed especially the CBNC crowd &#160;and will be Rez going up.&#160;Once we get there does it keep going or does Rez hold. Not too much higher is w2 territory then we got us a pretty big w3 down.&#160;A bigger deal for me is the 50dma, which is way off at this point. But it could be w2 if Rez holds there. And a monster w3

[Duma]

I don't even have a 200ma on my charts. Not my concern.

[No-Quarter]

Many S&P Sector leveraged ETF's turned up today. Many swing trading entry points will likely be presenting themselves tomorrow.

The big three have all recently crossed below their 200MA's support. As they turn around today and head back up, the 200MA will no longer be support but rather resistance.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p61690906554
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p61690906554
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p61690906554




IF price action breaks above the 200MA, we go further up.

IF price action fails to break above, we go down to lower lows.

My guess is we go down to lower lows. Below is why I think this way. GLTY

https://archive.is/BVxvt

“They’re basically saying let’s increase tariffs to pay for tax cuts,and ensuing uncertainty will push 10yrs lower,which we also want,” he said,channeling Treasury Secretary Bessent,Trump too. “They’ll talk about saving Main Street which will play; it’ll put pressure on tech valuations, but they don’t like those companies anyway. And if the economy slows down, it’ll take inflation lower and the Fed will cut, which is what they want.”

“And a big tax cut is forthcoming,” continued Lone Star, one of the top performing US endowment CIOs. “The combo of tax cuts, regulatory reform and the delayed impact of Fed cuts, will collectively hit in 4Q25/1Q26 and the economy will be off to the races at 3%+ annualized GDP,” he said, looking out across the vast open, peering beyond the horizon. “And we’ll grow our way out of some of the current debt, entitlement, and valuation issues.” That of course takes us into the heat of mid-term election season, which is what really matters.

[Duma]

Went fully long at the open and also made several major stock/etf buys. A good day. Question now is how long will it last?

[haha11]

$UVIX.......15........DLY LL.....

https://schrts.co/dXzsZjGh

[haha11]

UPDATE...$SVIX......15.......DLY....HH.....

15..
https://schrts.co/YbZrVjRE
DLY.
https://schrts.co/urZytXrK

[haha11]

$GUSH......60........DLY......HH......

60...
https://schrts.co/JGrpNRcn

DLY...
https://schrts.co/knPTYnUd

[haha11]

UPDATED---15.........DLY.....HH......


15........
https://schrts.co/wnJWhNQX
DLY....
https://schrts.co/dsFhzJnJ

[haha11]

$TQQQ.....15.......DLY HH....ABV R1....Look like a BULL STATUS Maybe.. OPINION..

15...
https://schrts.co/NDMDZTyH

With GAP down still open may needed to fill....??
DLY...IF Today DLY BAR Change color to RED = ALERT..MAY RUNING DOWN ???..TO GAP FILL

https://schrts.co/hvYeshSf

[haha11]

$SVIX.......30.........DLY HH.......... IS NOT A BULL STATUS ....OPINION......


30....MAY BE O/B.....??
https://schrts.co/TfAtpIbT
DLY HH..
https://schrts.co/rsvrthWD

[haha11]

$TNA........15......+ DLY......HH...

15....
https://schrts.co/jaipspdF

.DLY....https://schrts.co/xyKtqZau.

[farooq]

Most of the time 50 Delta is a better choice for 2 to 4 week options from risk reward side, 60 delta is better for leaps, Leaps spread for 20 to 30 dollars, for Stock under 50 is good R/R.above hundred stock price 40 to 60 and so on. Yes you have to right in direction of the stock in that time frame to get the best result.

[spdpro]

Have a good weekend gang >
hope your positions are in the "good"

[spdpro]

my current pos is svix 2500 @ 20.65

[spdpro]

and >
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/senate-banking-committee-advances-genius-stablecoin-bill-despite-banking-pushback

[No-Quarter]

Hummm...

[spdpro]

the day >

[No-Quarter]

The $BPNDX and $BPSPX are reaching extended lows. Yup $BPNDX is now below 30. $BPSPX is approaching 30. I am watching for the 12PMO to bottom and turn up. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPNDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p00208329250
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p00208329250

[No-Quarter]

I am thinking this mornings storage report was just an excuse for some to take profits. The trend is still up.

The 17Apr $17c KOLD options I picked up today were at $4.00. The ask at EOD was $4.50. +12.5% GLTY

[jaws57]

Down Down Down.... BPNDX is now under 30 and falling like a knife as they say, but <30 on the BPs is the start of its "buyzone" view:
insert-text-here

[jaws57]

Thanks for the info. Holding out paid off today, we actually closed higher after that storage report that went against us.
I did sell OILU the 60m chart never led into a daily signal and 60m itself went sell. minor loss -1.30%
So i have KOLD and SPXS since 24Feb