Cycle Trading

[spdpro]

no changes here > same holdings > Have a good weekend

[jaws57]

thx

[haha11]

$LABD........DLY..

https://schrts.co/aadByUQg

[Duma]

Should see the following dates for upcoming dividends

03/21/25 SPY
03/24/25 SPXL
03/24/25 QQQ
03/26/25 TQQQ

[haha11]

SVIX.....UVIX...30......

$SVIX...30..
https://schrts.co/FTMWyTZX
$UVIX....30..
https://schrts.co/depEmnbh

[haha11]

R...21.54 13.40 PM....UPDATE $SVIX.....10.......21.45...H..Line...R...21.54,,

https://schrts.co/DNGqvJde

[haha11]

UPDATE $UVIX......10......33.40 ...35.40 ABOUT + 6%

https://schrts.co/dzaxVqTk

[haha11]

$UVIX............33.40
...TEST

[spdpro]

no changes here > solid day
was going to play with some loads but missed my marks and reverted back to sit on hands
vix opex Done / fomc Done / now 3 witch time >
play it as it comes available

[haha11]

$TNA.......30...+ DLY...

30.....
https://schrts.co/ViPPYJrz
DLY... R...32.36
https://schrts.co/TZPNEPUA

[jaws57]

Im still in, I do have stop at the LOD on the entry/signal bar <18.83.
there are several indicators involved. Need M12.26.1 sig line to turn down or two down days on 3MA
Actually I got distracted on the market with a project Im working on. Doesnt matter I got the stop to protect me.
insert-text-here

[No-Quarter]

I bailed out of KOLD this morning for a slight loss.

Histogram topping is my sell signal.

I will wait for another entry signal to present itself. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p10561347138

[jaws57]

Bit of a dip this morning, but we got some of that back in the afternoon.

[haha11]

$SVIX.......30....+....DLY LL....3/18/25.

GAP BTW....3/13/14 Needed to FILL..???? OPINION

30......
https://schrts.co/YdKdGjRS
DLY.........
https://schrts.co/hYUMJzYM

[No-Quarter]

I'm thinking KOLD will start moving up soon due to the weather outlooks.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p10561347138




https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif




https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif




BOIL/KOLD currently holds Apr and Jun futures contracts. GLTY

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTFFdIgMEQGK67GnE99yGOz2Fno_QkuIIk3_zCtJu_N__8er-WvPGUoUIj_zgGrP-sPmXSYlALWudah/pubchart?oid=616513212&format=image




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTFFdIgMEQGK67GnE99yGOz2Fno_QkuIIk3_zCtJu_N__8er-WvPGUoUIj_zgGrP-sPmXSYlALWudah/pubchart?oid=1050626085&format=image

[haha11]

$VIX....15......3 Ds DLY LL.....

15.......DLY LL...
https://schrts.co/kNzjPfSw
DLY....15 Ds
https://schrts.co/IZuwTtRp

[No-Quarter]

Excellent for you! You seem to do well with that trade.

[No-Quarter]

Thank you for the information. I will consider all this.

[spdpro]

looks good

[spdpro]

my svix pos is now paying well >
now just sit and wait time (might play it somewhat +/- 500 loads)
thru vix OpEx / thru FOMC with dog and pony show / thru 3 witch OpEx
and possibly hold into Apr 17 / 25 based on current options implied moves of 3.782 / 4.394

looking for VIX to drop to 18.50 area Or lower

[haha11]

$TNA.......30.......30.11.....R1=31.45.....

ABV MA20G Dot line MA50R Dot line GAP Still OPEN down not FILLED

https://schrts.co/ViPPYJrz

[jaws57]

What we need to be on guard is the SPY 200ma is widely followed especially the CBNC crowd &#160;and will be Rez going up.&#160;Once we get there does it keep going or does Rez hold. Not too much higher is w2 territory then we got us a pretty big w3 down.&#160;A bigger deal for me is the 50dma, which is way off at this point. But it could be w2 if Rez holds there. And a monster w3

[Duma]

I don't even have a 200ma on my charts. Not my concern.

[No-Quarter]

Many S&P Sector leveraged ETF's turned up today. Many swing trading entry points will likely be presenting themselves tomorrow.

The big three have all recently crossed below their 200MA's support. As they turn around today and head back up, the 200MA will no longer be support but rather resistance.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p61690906554
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p61690906554
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=1&id=p61690906554




IF price action breaks above the 200MA, we go further up.

IF price action fails to break above, we go down to lower lows.

My guess is we go down to lower lows. Below is why I think this way. GLTY

https://archive.is/BVxvt

“They’re basically saying let’s increase tariffs to pay for tax cuts,and ensuing uncertainty will push 10yrs lower,which we also want,” he said,channeling Treasury Secretary Bessent,Trump too. “They’ll talk about saving Main Street which will play; it’ll put pressure on tech valuations, but they don’t like those companies anyway. And if the economy slows down, it’ll take inflation lower and the Fed will cut, which is what they want.”

“And a big tax cut is forthcoming,” continued Lone Star, one of the top performing US endowment CIOs. “The combo of tax cuts, regulatory reform and the delayed impact of Fed cuts, will collectively hit in 4Q25/1Q26 and the economy will be off to the races at 3%+ annualized GDP,” he said, looking out across the vast open, peering beyond the horizon. “And we’ll grow our way out of some of the current debt, entitlement, and valuation issues.” That of course takes us into the heat of mid-term election season, which is what really matters.

[Duma]

Went fully long at the open and also made several major stock/etf buys. A good day. Question now is how long will it last?

[haha11]

$UVIX.......15........DLY LL.....

https://schrts.co/dXzsZjGh

[haha11]

UPDATE...$SVIX......15.......DLY....HH.....

15..
https://schrts.co/YbZrVjRE
DLY.
https://schrts.co/urZytXrK

[haha11]

$GUSH......60........DLY......HH......

60...
https://schrts.co/JGrpNRcn

DLY...
https://schrts.co/knPTYnUd

[haha11]

UPDATED---15.........DLY.....HH......


15........
https://schrts.co/wnJWhNQX
DLY....
https://schrts.co/dsFhzJnJ

[haha11]

$TQQQ.....15.......DLY HH....ABV R1....Look like a BULL STATUS Maybe.. OPINION..

15...
https://schrts.co/NDMDZTyH

With GAP down still open may needed to fill....??
DLY...IF Today DLY BAR Change color to RED = ALERT..MAY RUNING DOWN ???..TO GAP FILL

https://schrts.co/hvYeshSf

[haha11]

$SVIX.......30.........DLY HH.......... IS NOT A BULL STATUS ....OPINION......


30....MAY BE O/B.....??
https://schrts.co/TfAtpIbT
DLY HH..
https://schrts.co/rsvrthWD

[haha11]

$TNA........15......+ DLY......HH...

15....
https://schrts.co/jaipspdF

.DLY....https://schrts.co/xyKtqZau.

[farooq]

Most of the time 50 Delta is a better choice for 2 to 4 week options from risk reward side, 60 delta is better for leaps, Leaps spread for 20 to 30 dollars, for Stock under 50 is good R/R.above hundred stock price 40 to 60 and so on. Yes you have to right in direction of the stock in that time frame to get the best result.

[spdpro]

Have a good weekend gang >
hope your positions are in the "good"

[spdpro]

my current pos is svix 2500 @ 20.65

[spdpro]

and >
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/senate-banking-committee-advances-genius-stablecoin-bill-despite-banking-pushback

[No-Quarter]

Hummm...

[spdpro]

the day >

[No-Quarter]

The $BPNDX and $BPSPX are reaching extended lows. Yup $BPNDX is now below 30. $BPSPX is approaching 30. I am watching for the 12PMO to bottom and turn up. GLTY

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPNDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p00208329250
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=1&id=p00208329250

[No-Quarter]

I am thinking this mornings storage report was just an excuse for some to take profits. The trend is still up.

The 17Apr $17c KOLD options I picked up today were at $4.00. The ask at EOD was $4.50. +12.5% GLTY

[jaws57]

Down Down Down.... BPNDX is now under 30 and falling like a knife as they say, but <30 on the BPs is the start of its "buyzone" view:
insert-text-here

[jaws57]

Thanks for the info. Holding out paid off today, we actually closed higher after that storage report that went against us.
I did sell OILU the 60m chart never led into a daily signal and 60m itself went sell. minor loss -1.30%
So i have KOLD and SPXS since 24Feb

[No-Quarter]

Its like watching a tennis match...

...but up and down rather than side to side.

[spdpro]

we having fun yet ?

[haha11]

$LABU.......DLY.......Monitor....ABV ..R....80.83

https://schrts.co/SdMcViGW

[haha11]

$TZA......DLY.......Today w9u....no effected RSI 14 O/B Over 70...now reading 77.88

https://schrts.co/qbyGHwtX

[No-Quarter]

UPDATED - When choosing options, I look for what's available 4-6 weeks out. I prefer monthly over weekly (when available) as they typically have larger volume (easier to get in and out). I then look for ones with a Delta of 0.7 to 0.8 (roughly representing 70% to 80% chance of being 'in the money'). I then trade them using the daily charts. When the daily chart momentum fades, I look to sell the options. I typically hold options for 3-5 days, and usually not longer than 10 days, this to limit the impact of decay.

Here is a link to the KOLD 17Apr option chain. Click on the individual strike price lines and the 'greeks' will pop up. As of this moment, clicking on the $17 call line will show a Delta of 0.77.

If you scroll down when on the strike price page you will see helpful price and volume 'charts' too.

I picked up 2 of the 17Apr $17 calls this morning. GLTY

https://optioncharts.io/options/KOLD/option-chain?option_type=all&expiration_dates=2025-04-17:w&view=straddle&strike_range=all

[jaws57]

the Thur report certainly didnt help things here, but Im not panicking (yet) were still above Y's LOD KOLD.
Yes the squeeze, good catch. I think bias is down side of NG so good for KOLD, My trades can be too quick sometimes. I need to look at the options.

[haha11]

$BOIL.....15......DLY...LL....LIMITED HI. today ..OPINION.

15...
https://schrts.co/KvJPGYnf
DLY...
https://schrts.co/fCyRXUEY

[haha11]

$KOLD........15........DLY.....

15
https://schrts.co/JUsCPmCh
DLY....
https://schrts.co/yaHKMTsR