Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 27, 2023

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 233600 is immediately trading down about 2.82% for the year from last year's settlement of 240400. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. At present, this market has been rising for this month going into May reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 227850 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 237250.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 235550 and support forming below at 232350. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 1st at 264350, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 6th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 234850. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in September 2022.

This market is trading well beneath that high of April which was 262350 by more than 10 percent. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high.

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