Mav, if you're saying after approval in the U.K. we don't move up, why not say the same thing will occur after all four regulators approve, nothing will move are share price up. You can't say it because you know it can't be true, and that's true of the U.K. Once we have U.K. approval we'll be earning money there, far more money than we can possibly make from a few people receiving DCVax-L under compassionate use. Revenue will build month after month, quarter after quarter and yes the share price will be effected by the revenue.
Certainly we have a lot of shares outstanding, but when you have the one therapeutic that opens the door to others working, it's going to make a lot of money even if much of the world has to go to the U.K. to get it. It won't be that long before it's available in much more of the world. In the first year it's available for sale, I believe it will sell at least a quarter billion worth, and probably more like half a billion, sales should double, or more, every six months, so in little time we'll have blockbuster sales. That's not saying blockbuster earnings, but I cannot imagine a company with billion dollar sale that are growing rapidly not being worth somewhere in the $5 to $10 billion in market cap. Even with over 1.5 billion shares outstanding we're looking at something over $3 and it's more likely to be over $5. It won't happen instantly, unless we get a major partner or substantial positive media attention, but it will happen in under a year from when we're initially approved.
What if we do get a major partnership, or perhaps even better major media coverage that's simply telling the world what we already know, our vaccine may be of benefit to nearly all solid cancer patients. What happens then? I've seen stocks that cured mice rise from $1 to over $100 until people realized that even if that technology was good it would take a decade or more to reach people, but that's not the case with us. If our technology works in many cancers and media attention takes us to triple digits, perhaps we'll retrench by 50%, but then we'll stabilize until earnings say we should go even higher. It won't take that long for earnings to take us there as approvals come not from just the other regulators, but from nearly all the world piggy-backing on the work done by the four regulators.
Of course all of this is predicated on the company's ability to deliver the vaccine. That is clearly predicated on the Eden unit being able to make it, but once we're over that hurdle, we can mass produce Eden units to meet the demand easily and they can be deployed to facilities with cleanrooms around the world if that's determined to be necessary.
I won't say that a partnership with a BP won't get things done faster, but if we get the right media attention, I don't know that it will be necessary, and if it comes, it will be at a price that's substantially higher than what LP would have accepted before that major media attention.
Gary
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