NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[biosectinvestor]

Management owns a substantial stake, and a substantial stake appears to be in friendly hands. As well, they have control in different ways that make a hostile buyout unattractive, something that triggers bears to attack management in a company like this to dislodge such control to enable their own machinations and manipulations.

Most likely management has a plan and a valuation that is much higher than BP wants to pay and BP is notorious for not diving into cell therapy plays and curative potential such plays. They also like to wait until all risks are fully played out. Hence all the best noises about this is intended to keep them away. It’s like bull repellent.

The one thing the bears can’t stop is the potential for partnership deals and combination trials. But if this is approved, those pathways will be much easier under new proposed FDA rules, so those pathways may not be as attractive as they used to be for small companies like this with a successful trial. If you can get your product effectively to a point where you have the benefits of approval for other conditions, with just real world data, not even a trial, with insurance and Medicare coverage, once you are already approved for one condition, the attractiveness of giving away the store in some areas to develop others is far less attractive. Meanwhile, those pathways are unproven to the day traders who muck around on the OTC and probably even to institutional investors. So there is less certainty despite the liberalization of things by the regulators. And the product is not yet approved for GBM to open up those possibilities, and bear narratives and distraction with lawsuits have diluted the arguments in favor of investing for noise.

Things will turn around and probably already have. We’ll see if that’s the case, but I expect it. This is just a roll along the volatility curve.