The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

CLF 1Q23 results—(compare_to_pre-announced_numbers_on_4/11/23):

https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/587/cleveland-cliffs-reports-first-quarter-2023-results

• Revenues of $5.3 billion (slightly better than $5.2B pre-announced number)

• Steel shipments of 4.1 million net tons (equal to pre-announced number)

• GAAP net loss of $42 million, or $0.11 per diluted share attributable to Cliffs shareholders (GAAP EPS was not pre-announced)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $243 million (better than pre-announced estimate of $200M—see comment below)

1Q23 steel ASP was $1,128, -2% QoQ and -22% YoY.

CLF expects much higher EBITDA in 2Q23 (and subsequent quarters) than in 1Q23, due to price increases taken during 1Q23 as well as lower production costs. The above PR does not explicitly update CLF’s full-year 2023 guidance EBIDTA of $3.2B; however, 2023 EBITDA guidance ought to increase by about $25M because CLF just reduced its guidance for 2023 cap-ex by $25M.

I’ll have more to say after tomorrow’s CC (10am ET).