Cycle Trading

[desertcynlite]

I'm seeing the same thing and I bought LOL. In case it's not clear, my positions are long. Some positions I just got whole on again because I jumped in too early. I swear, every time I get sick, I make a mistake I have to get myself out of. Fortunately, I'm feeling better.

I keep wondering if this is where the market finally rallies up for good. In the past, when we got in an "all hell breaks loose" position and the government stepped in to bail something out, I believed the talking heads that said the sky was falling. That was usually the bottom and I got wrong footed. QE and government support always make the market go up. Today, I think we are getting ready for a leg up, but I don't know if October was THE bottom for sure. It sure feels like it though. I think the S&P has been holding up well. The Russell 2000 got dinged recently, but then came back up and found support at the December bottom, at least so far. The tech (growth) stocks have also been doing well this year so, does that mean we are coming out of a recession we didn't realize we were in? At the moment, my charts (below) for trying to figure this out, say we could be.

The way to read the ratio charts are as follows. The first in the pair is green and the second in the pair is red. The keys are on the Weekly charts on the right. I have a footnote at the bottom that says "Consumer Discretionary & Technology Sectors led the first move off the 2003 lows" after that awful two year bear market back in the day. (Unfortunately, I didn't make a note of my source for that information. I just stuck it on the chart last year because it was important and that is why I made the charts.) Right now, Consumer Discretionary, S&P Growth ETF and US Technology are in the lead!