I've been an investor in IMGN essentially since it became public, SGEN came along in the same sector, conjugate drugs, years later. At first, IMGN's market cap was larger, then roughly equal, then smaller and finally tiny by comparison. Within years of its existence SGEN was rumored to be near a buyout, that rumor continued for decades, now it's happened, finally. Clearly I'd have come out ahead if I switched to SGEN, but comparing the two, IMGN was so undervalued I believed it to be the better investment. Today I still believe that their technology could be superior to that of SGEN's, but clearly SGEN has done a far better job of marketing itself. SGEN has more approved drugs, but when both companies targeted the same disease, IMGN's product was effective while SGEN's failed. Over the years SGEN's annual losses have been greater than IMGN's, but SGEN's share price was dramatically higher, so raising funds was easier with far fewer shares needed to generate larger amounts permitting more drug development.
Why do I bring this up with NWBO? Because both these companies have not turned a profit over many more years than NWBO, both have taken very different paths, both have approved drugs, and perhaps most importantly neither have the blockbuster potential of NWBO's DCVax's. Don't get me wrong, if both companies conjugate drugs are approved for additional indications they will be making billions. If the DCVax's truly prove effective in many solid cancers we could be talking trillions, but certainly tens to hundreds of billions. It does take time, we're in our infancy compared to either of these companies, but our market cap could easily exceed that of IMGN's, but it will be awhile before we reach the buyout price for SGEN.
What is awhile? If in reality trials prove benefits in many solid cancers, that's awhile, it could be just a few years, it could take a decade or more. I'm not speaking of approvals in many trials, just a clear indication that our vaccines are of benefit, off label use will take care of sales in these cancers well before regulatory approvals are achieved, if ever. The key is healthcare systems all over the world will cover the use of DCVax's in treating multiple cancers and with that, NWBO will have a market cap far in excess of what's being paid for SGEN.
As for IMGN, I still believe it's market cap will grow dramatically in the next few years as it's drugs are approved and their acceptance grows. I do maintain a position there, but not nearly as big as what I have in NWBO. Do I wish I bought some SGEN years ago, sure, we all fail to see all the companies we should have invested in. I can remember when the likes of Apple, IBM, Amazon, etc. got their start, I think we all can count many times we could have bought, and didn't. I believe our potential here as as great, or greater than any of them, but the one thing we need to remember is that it takes time. Our time is coming.
Gary
Bullish
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