Sunday, January 29, 2023 5:56:04 PM
Kerrisdale:
Now, the more complex argument is that higher Gbaud modulators would allow for direct-detect to replace Coherent in longer reach applications. We’ve seen Polariton hint at this, and frankly it’s laughable. As we discussed at length in our report, higher baud rates mean higher frequencies and wider channels, and the net change in spectral efficiency can (and frequently will) be negative. Now take away higher order modulation, and it’s no contest: you’ll basically end up transmitting data at much lower speeds because your channel count has been reduced (by half or more) and you’ve lost the ability to multiply your bit rate by 2, 4, or 8x. How is that supposed to help data transmission speeds? If you read the industry trade journals, you’ll notice (and we pointed this out in our report) that the focus is shifting from trying to increase baud rates to trying to increase the number of channels (also known as: parallel transmission). The entire point of increasing baud rates right now would be to allow coherent data transmission to go farther rather than actually increasing total speeds (speeds can already be maximized by optimizing spectral efficiency, which is a fancy way of saying chopping up the data and running it on the maximum number of channels. Remember that doubling the baud rate also halves the number of channels, so you end up on net with no gain in the speed at which your data will arrive at the destination).
All that is a fancy way of saying: coherent transmission is not going anywhere. The entire point of higher order modulation is to allow multiple bits per baud in as narrow a channel as possible, and no one is giving that up.
X addressed this on June 11 but I'm not sure if he is even responding to teh 'no gain in the speed' claim by Kerrisdale, and only highlighting the power, or something else:
You are talking about PAM 4. Slide 18, PAM4-8QAM can only do 400 Gig, that is 8 Modulators stacked on top of each other, using far more electricity which produces heat with a Large Footprint. So if Lightwave took 2 of their 100 Gig modulators running PAM 4 it is 400 Gig and uses half the power and more importantly Lightwave can put 120 Modulators in the same footprint. Slide 27
My philosophy is to just be honest and balanced, and let the market decide if it agrees or not.
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