NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

Skitahoe, Good thoughts. What makes sense to me is, NWBO owns DCVax in single drug therapies and partners with BP on the combination drug therapy side. Here combination means DCVax sales not royalty. On the royalty side, I can see licensing DCVax in partnership with an expert in a new field, for example Gilead for exploring DCVax with virus infections. And of course there is licensing for discovery, niche, and small market areas that NWBO may not go into itself but makes sense to partner, as potential royalty or sales upside.

My understanding is the bulk of market cap (“size of wallet”) is in drug sales, not royalties income. Each success in growing revenues and SOC in a next cancer indication is what will win long term investor support and realize DCVax’s potential for decades.

You used a strawman example of 15% royalties. Imagine a $1B upfront cash pymt, $0.5B sales milestones, plus a ~10 yr royalty annuity (15% of sales) in exchange for selling 85% of DCVax-L to BP. That would be a giveaway, especially when gross margins on drug sales typically are 70+ %. Plus there is the opportunity cost of not pursuing DCVax-L in other cancers beyond GBM.

The anxiety on most people’s minds is “whatever it takes to raise the stock price”. I think that gets addressed with some combination of “when, not if” milestones achieved: MIA in UK, lawsuit against MM, and submission of MAA drug application. And I am hopeful and confident that happens in a big way soon. We are at that point in this investment story. With that, we get new money and new investors at the higher valuations. As you say, it is important to negotiate with BP after that, otherwise amounts are discounted before then.