S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 14, 2023

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 12 days. Currently, the market is trading somewhat bullish on our indicators still showing overhead resistance but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.65% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 1124881, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 1090016 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.

Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 1124683 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 1090016 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place. Our Stochastics are all pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during November 2022. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Apr. 10, 2023. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 1080726 and overhead resistance forming above at 1116054. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 26th at 1020747, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 26th, which has been a move of .0834%.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 2 months since the low established back in October 2022.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 1149262 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during November 2022. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 1318109 back during August 2022. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward.

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