CAM!!!
He’s back! Great to see you on the board again. The guy who taught me what “shorting a stock” meant, the basics about options trading AND the guy who was the catalyst and initial recipient of the email that was to become the “EPA Deficiency Syndrome” paper (now evolved into a 42 page paper with accompanying video on YouTube) :)
It was a lifetime ago that we met for lunch at a pub in Montreal.
As always you show your wisdom. We are dependent on execution of the business plan and not on the hype. Totally agree.
It is my personal opinion, not shared by many on this board, that we have a new Board and executive team (75% of each) who have made the required shift in strategy to adapt to our new circumstances. KM became CEO in August and cut the sales force in half in September. He hired outside lawyers to pursue the legal options while locking in insurance companies to exclusively use V and retained 60% market share in spite of numerous generics to compete with (unheard of market retention post generics). The plan to fund the EU launch with Germany sales got derailed by a government that simply didn’t want to pay for new therapies and selected an inappropriate comparator molecule that restricted what V could be reimbursed at to a point it was below cost. KM didn’t blink at the UK’s NICE treats and claims of “no benefit” held his ground and got an impressive reimbursement price which will be used in all future pricing discussions. Rolling out across EU at a gradual pace to conserve cash, he has a clear plan of action and has made the necessary cuts to expenses to achieve that plan while remaining cash flow neutral. 90M burn to a 4M surplus is undeniably impressive.
Denner has made some big and profitable deals. He knows a lot of people and attracts attention and money. But really, beyond the “hype” what does he bring to the table? What could he do better than what KM (focus people: I’m talking about KM, not JT or Lars or Du or the German government) has planned and put in place? Denner tends to cut costs, trim the fat, sell off or shut down unprofitable divisions or projects. Amarin is a 1 drug company with almost no sales force. What can he cut? The bottom line is that Amarin doesn’t have the cash a BP has to market more aggressively and grow sales. If a BP owned V then YES they would be growing sales multiples above what Amarin is doing but Amarin is Amarin and that is not an option. BP knows everything about V (hell, Pfizer is already selling it in Canada) and they DON’T WANT TO BUY AMARIN at the moment (too many unknowns I suspect - oh wait, I forgot, all BP are waiting for MITIGATE to confirm R-IT, RESPECT, JELIS, EVAPORATE, CHERRY ). Denner can’t change that unless he makes a lowball offer to motivate a sale which he may want to do just to GET THE HELL OUT OF THIS BRUTAL INVESTMENT (a sentiment shared by many here).
Zero chance I vote to hand over 7 seats (automatic complete control of the company by majority board representation) to 1 guy just because he made a killing on The Medicine Company. If he wants to commit to lending Amarin 200M at low interest to free up KM to start aggressively marketing and growing then he definitely has my vote for 2, maybe 3 seats. Otherwise I just don’t see what he has to offer besides “the hype”.
As HDG said, a good company doesn’t sell itself, it gets bought. You GIA 100% until you don’t.
Great to have you back Cam
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