S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 31, 2022

At this time, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1046648. This price action here in January is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during November. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 1060946 and support forming below at 1044682. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 12th at 1157164, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 2 months since the low established back in October.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 1149262 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during November. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 1318109 back during August. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding.

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