AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

[BUGGI1000]

@Alan/WBMW
WBMW, first you said, that buyers pay a "special" price, so
when AMD decreases the price, the OEM could price the whole
box lower, so if your point would be right, the potential buyer
would choose a better CPU just to get the "old price". In
the end, the ASP would be stable for AMD.
Second, in the last quarter X2 vol. rose, no question, but not that
much, so if the rest (SC) drops very sharp and Optis too,
you have a problem - overall ASPs decreased. We all couldn't
quantify the new development, but I'm not as sure as your,
that ASPs have to fall with the new prices. The crucial point
and thats the MAIN QUESTION -> in which direction will the
mix develop. If AMD could raise X2 parts as a percentage of
overall volume by e.g. 10% QoQ. and if Optis could stay stable
, ASPs will rise. But in the end, its very very difficult to
say at this point. As a additional point - in Q4 AMD dropped
alot of 939 for very very low prices into the market (rumours
say 1,5Mio.) - thats a one-timer. When I add this, I'm "sure",
ASP will stay stable at the minimum QoQ. Thats my guess -
which is way different than yours.

Alan, as Keith said, AMD will price their products which will
make them very competative to Intel ones, otherwise the will
(or hardly) not sell. I can't see, what the new 2xxx should
cause for AMD now? Look at the X2-3600+ prices or look at the
A64 too, they are already at very low levels and I'm wondering
why these should drop further at this point. Keep in mind,
that AMD will introduce new bins too -> nothing special. At
this point its my feeling, that with more and more FAB36 and
65nm volume, X2 share will grow to the same regions which
Intel will deliever. Not this quarter, not next quarter, but
at the end of 2007, there will be no difference or only a
small one. So I don't know, why Intel could sell for 125/130$
and AMD for 70. In the end, we will have to see.

Up to date, I'm not extremly bullish for the very short term visible progress -
but you always have to look at the price. AMD at 15$ is very
depressed. Subract ATI and you get a feeling, what the market
pays now for AMD. I'm wondering, if Intel is really worth
20-30x or more at this point? My answer is no ...