Kab, the arithmetic is really not very complicated. Utilizing a simple ruler it was easy for me to determine from the K-M curve in fig. 1 of the 2018 JTM article, that at 27 months from surgery (about 24 months from randomization), 39%-40% of the 331 patients were still alive. This is equivalent to 129-132 survivors. Since according to the May 10 NYAS presentation, 81 of those 24 months survivors originated from the 232 treatment patients, the remaining 48-51 survivors must have originated from the remaining 99 patients. Originally, we believed that of the 99 remaining patients, 64 were crossovers and 35 were never L treated patients but Dr. L told us in her recent webinar, that 7 of the 35 dropped out and many of the remaining 29 true placebos did not do very well. It is therefore easy to conclude that the overwhelming majority of the 48-51 non treatment patients who were alive at 24 months were crossover patients. The mOS of that 64 patient crossover group is therefore most likely several months north of 24 months.
Considering the 16,5 months mOS of the ECAs and the 19.3 months mOS of the treatment group, the mOS of the crossovers is most likely spectacular and I expect more details of those results in the article that according to Dr. Ashkan was submitted before his September 9 presentation. Also in October, Dr. Ashkan mentioned that he believes that this publication was already being reviewed by the journal. I therefore am guessing that this article will soon be published and will be much more detailed than the TLD JAMA publication.
Bullish
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