The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[santafe2]

Currently the US economy is a mixed bag. Semis, software and other tech are still moving down. I don't think we can count on a robust rebound until these industries along with the discretionary and communications sectors turning around. It's unlikely this will happen until the Fed indicates they're done raising overnight rates.

Clearly I was incorrect regarding the stickiness of inflation. We'll get the October CPI report on Thursday. What I think we're seeing with the CPI staying elevated is producers reestablishing sustainable pricing. I understand some will see this as 'price gouging' but I don't think that sentiment takes into account that PPI ran much hotter than CPI over the last year.

As for CAT as a bell weather, certainly yes as regards the industrial/materials sector. However that sector accounts for less than 3% of the SPX while technology accounts for almost 30% - less today, (27-28%), based on 2022 losses.